KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (October):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/06/12 @ 112.72. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 114.57. Upside Target = 122.19 – 124.11.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 112.72 or lower.
- October Brent Crude bounced around amid a volatile trading session on Friday as hopes of more Fed easing overruled the markets uncertainty of an SPR release and led Brent to finish back near the weekly mid-range.
- While the “risk” markets will ultimately be waiting for the FOMC announcement on Thursday to direct market direction for the rest of the month, look for Brent to follow through on Friday’s bullish price action and move back above $115.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.19
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.00
- Projected Monthly Range: 1305
WTI Crude Oil (October):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/04/12 @ 96.93. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/30/12 @ 94.62. Upside Targets = 100.04 – 101.56.
- October WTI Crude Oil firmly held the multi-week support zone just above $94 on Friday as Friday mornings report projected and rallied more than $2.50 higher throughout the session to close in the upper 90% of the day’s range.
- Expect continued support in the market to return at $95.43 and then move higher to challenge last week’s high of $97.71.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.52
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.60
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.76
Natural Gas (October):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/06/2012 @ 2.761. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/07/2012 @ 2.682. Downside Targets = 2.563 – 2.484.
- October Natural Gas continued lower on Friday to trade back below $2.70 as projected as early as last Wednesday morning and generated its lowest weekly close since June 22.
- Expect natural gas to continue to work its way lower to the aforementioned downside targets of $2.563 – $2.484.
- Projected Daily Range: .104
- Projected Weekly Range: .269
- Projected Monthly Range: .665
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Upside Targets = 1721.90 – 1765.60.
- Bullish EROVB (Extended Range) generated on Friday making new highs on the current move @ 1745.40. Upside Target over 140% achieved.
- December Gold exploded higher once again on Friday after a dismal NFP report prompted investors to flock into the precious metal as a hedge against the assumed inflation that will occur with the addition of more QE expected.
- Although gold has made a $150/oz. move in the last 3 ½ weeks, this rally should continue on into the foreseeable future and take this market as high as $1,809.10/oz. should the FOMC announce further QE as expected.
- Projected Daily Range: 28.70
- Projected Weekly Range: 57.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 126.40
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/2012 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/21/2012 @ 1.2451. Upside Targets = 1.2623 – 1.2797.
- Bullish ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Friday making new highs on current move @ 1.2820. Upside Target over 120% achieved.
- The September Euro FX extended its recent gains on Friday to trade just through our Q3 upside objective of 1.2797 and close outside the daily Resistance Bollinger Band on its way to new 15-week highs.
- Expect a minor retracement back lower to begin Monday trading before regaining any momentum on the heels of the ECB’s unlimited bond buying program which is viewed by some as taking away tail-risk in the market and could continue to drive the Euro higher.
- Projected Daily Range: .0136
- Projected Weekly Range: .0262
- Projected Monthly Range: .0532
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/06/12 @ 1409.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/06/12 @ 1425.00. Upside Targets = 1446.25 – 1460.50.
- New highs made on current move Friday @ 1438.75. Upside Target = 1460.50.
- The September S&P’s traded within a very narrow range on Friday after Thursday’s explosion higher as the market viewed the terrible NFP report as adding fuel to the fire in terms of the hype around more QE.
- Look for the market to remain mostly stagnant on Monday through Wednesday ahead of another jobless claim number and the FOMC forecast which should dictate market direction for the coming months.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 31.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 80.25
