Oil targets support near $94 after payrolls

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 09/07/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (October):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/06/12 @ 112.72. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 114.57. Upside Target = 122.19 – 124.11.
  • Bearish OVB generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 112.72 or lower.
  • October Brent Crude proved that price action remains one of the most important factors in determining market direction as it gave back all of its early gains that had the market trading above $115 to make new lows going into the end of trading.
  • As mentioned in Thursday’s report, Brent should initially break lower on Friday as it head toward the weekly downside objective of $111.21.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.11
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.44
  • Projected Monthly Range: 1305

WTI Crude Oil (October):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/04/12 @ 96.93. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/30/12 @ 94.62. Upside Targets = 100.04 – 101.56.
  • October WTI Crude Oil generated new weekly highs on Thursday just below $98 and stopping a single tick shy of last week’s high before dropping $3 lower on more technical selling at the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
  • While yesterday’s report provided an accurate detailing market action, Thursday’s weak close ahead of Friday’s NFP report could trigger a further decline back to the multi-week support  level of $94.00-$93.56.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.39
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.04
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.76

Natural Gas (October):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/31/12 @ 2.768. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 2.799. Upside Targets = 2.836 – 2.915.
  • Bearish AOVB (Almost Outside Vertical Bar) generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.761. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 2.761 or lower.
  • October Natural Gas lost all of its early session gains on Thursday despite a lower than expected build in supply inventories and just avoided confirming a Short Term top in the market.
  • As mentioned since the middle of last week, look for natural gas to drop to new weekly lows and make a move to challenge not only the August low of $2.612 but the Q3 objective of $2.563 and Intermediate Term objective of $2.485.
  • Projected Daily Range: .105
  • Projected Weekly Range: .185
  • Projected Monthly Range: .665

Page 1 of 2 >>
Comments
comments powered by Disqus