KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (October):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/06/12 @ 112.72. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 114.57. Upside Target = 122.19 – 124.11.
- Bearish OVB generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 112.72 or lower.
- October Brent Crude proved that price action remains one of the most important factors in determining market direction as it gave back all of its early gains that had the market trading above $115 to make new lows going into the end of trading.
- As mentioned in Thursday’s report, Brent should initially break lower on Friday as it head toward the weekly downside objective of $111.21.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.11
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.44
- Projected Monthly Range: 1305
WTI Crude Oil (October):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/04/12 @ 96.93. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/30/12 @ 94.62. Upside Targets = 100.04 – 101.56.
- October WTI Crude Oil generated new weekly highs on Thursday just below $98 and stopping a single tick shy of last week’s high before dropping $3 lower on more technical selling at the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
- While yesterday’s report provided an accurate detailing market action, Thursday’s weak close ahead of Friday’s NFP report could trigger a further decline back to the multi-week support level of $94.00-$93.56.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.39
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.04
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.76
Natural Gas (October):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/31/12 @ 2.768. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 2.799. Upside Targets = 2.836 – 2.915.
- Bearish AOVB (Almost Outside Vertical Bar) generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.761. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 2.761 or lower.
- October Natural Gas lost all of its early session gains on Thursday despite a lower than expected build in supply inventories and just avoided confirming a Short Term top in the market.
- As mentioned since the middle of last week, look for natural gas to drop to new weekly lows and make a move to challenge not only the August low of $2.612 but the Q3 objective of $2.563 and Intermediate Term objective of $2.485.
- Projected Daily Range: .105
- Projected Weekly Range: .185
- Projected Monthly Range: .665
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Upside Targets = 1721.90 – 1728.70.
- New highs made on current move Thursday @ 1716.90. Upside Targets over 100% achieved.
- December Gold rocketed to within $1 of making new six month highs on Thursday and only $5.00 of our extended Q3 upside price target of $1721.90.
- Once gold penetrated the daily Resistance Bollinger Band it had a tough time maintaining momentum and moved back lower to settle just above the daily mid-range and could see a profit taking sell-off going into the weekend.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.40
- Projected Weekly Range: 50.10
- Projected Monthly Range: 126.40
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/12 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/21/12 @ 1.2451. Upside Targets = 1.2623 – 1.2699.
- New highs made on current move Thursday @ 1.2654. Upside Target over 105% achieved.
- The September Euro FX continued higher on Thursday, as projected, as it made new nine-week highs after be bolstered by a weaker USD and support from the ECB.
- Look for a continued rally on Friday and for the euro to test the 1.2700 mark for the first time since late June.
- Note: the Eurozone may continue to put Band-Aid’s on the problems many of its nations face but the euro will most likely face intensifying pressure in the coming months until hardcore solutions are brought to the table.
- Projected Daily Range: .0097
- Projected Weekly Range: .0200
- Projected Monthly Range: .0532
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/06/12 @ 1409.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/06/12 @ 1425.00. Upside Targets = 1446.25 – 1460.50.
- Bullish ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Thursday.
- The September S&P’s exploded higher on Thursday to new 4 ½ year highs as an upbeat jobs report and further central bank easing from the ECB led market to their single day gain since the end of June.
- Although the S&P’s had an incredible day on Thursday, unless the NFP report can follow up with impressive Labor Dept. numbers then this rally will come unhinged just as fast as it started.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 35.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 80.25
