KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (October):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/31/12 @ 113.45. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 114.57. Upside Target = 122.19 – 124.11.
- Bearish OVB generated on Tuesday after making new 3+ month highs @ 116.65.
- October Brent Crude initially started the week higher as it made highs on the current move before running into stark resistance at the daily RBB and dropped nearly $3 lower to close back below $115.
- Look for Brent to continue a shade lower on Wednesday to trade down possibly below $113 and then find support and finish the session off strong.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.41
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.44
- Projected Monthly Range: 1305
WTI Crude Oil (October):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/04/2012 @ 96.93. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/30/2012 @ 94.62. Upside Targets = 100.04 – 101.56.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 96.93 or higher.
- October WTI Crude Oil moved back lower during Tuesday trading on the heels of a lower than expected ISM Mfg Index reading as well as a sharp decline in construction spending.
- Overall we still expect this market to be good after trading back below near the lower 25% of last week’s trading range and trading out to the side for most of the day’s action, setting up for a possible move back to $97 on Wednesday.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.16
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.04
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.76
Natural Gas (October):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/31/2012 @ 2.768. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/2012 @ 2.799. Upside Targets = 2.836 – 2.915.
- New highs made on current move Tuesday @ 2.888. Upside Targets 85% achieved.
- October Natural Gas continued higher to open the week on Tuesday as speculators continue to bid the market higher on the possibility of supply disruptions from Hurricane Isaac as it traded through our first upside objective.
- Expect natural gas to stall just below $2.95 ahead of Thursday’s EIA report and should the fundamentals align with the technical indicators, this market could fall as low as $2.485 in the coming weeks.
- Projected Daily Range: .119
- Projected Weekly Range: .185
- Projected Monthly Range: .665
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Upside Targets = 1721.90 – 1728.70.
- New highs made on current move Tuesday @ 1701.60. Upside Targets 80% achieved.
- December Gold trade through $1,700/oz. on Tuesday for the first time in nearly six months as investors added to their bullish wagers of further QE and a deflated USD.
- Although gold did settle back off of its highs of the session, the precious metal should still continue higher on Wednesday and reach towards the Q3 objective f $1,721.90.
- Projected Daily Range: 25.60
- Projected Weekly Range: 50.10
- Projected Monthly Range: 126.40
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/2012 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/21/2012 @ 1.2451. Upside Targets = 1.2623 – 1.2699.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1.2495. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1.2495 or lower.
- The September Euro FX dropped back lower on Tuesday after failing to break through last week’s high and closed in the lower 25% of the day’s trading range.
- With the daily SSO reaching some of its highest readings since late February, this market could see a 3-5 day decline that would push the Euro down to 1.2412 before finding any Short Term support.
- Projected Daily Range: .0099
- Projected Weekly Range: .0200
- Projected Monthly Range: .0532
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/23/12 @ 1404.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/23/12 @ 1400.00. Downside Targets = 1387.50 – 1375.50.
- New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 1394.50. Downside Targets 60% achieved.
- The September S&P’s had a very volatile session to begin the week on Tuesday after disappointing economic data initially brought this market to the brink of four-week lows before rallying to end the session in the upper 75% of the daily trading range.
- The S&P’s are showing signs of manipulation once again as the market seems to be artificially inflated by the prospect of additional QE just before election time and should the S&P’s close above Tuesday’s high of 1409.50, this market could surge as high as 1446.25 in the next few weeks.
- Projected Daily Range: 14.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 35.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 80.25
