KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Upside Targets = 1721.90 – 1728.70.
- Bullish EROVB generated on Friday making new highs on current move @ 1695.50.
- December Gold exploded higher on Friday as Chairman Bernanke opened the door for further QE measures and thus added to the current $100/oz. increase in value over the past three weeks.
- As we have mentioned in our morning reports, after projecting the Q2 downside target of $1,528.10, Gold could have seen an Intermediate-Term bottom that will push this market even higher toward our year end objectives of $2037.90 - $2051.70.
- Projected Daily Range: 24.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 50.10
- Projected Monthly Range: 126.40
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/2012 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/21/2012 @ 1.2451. Upside Targets = 1.2623 – 1.2699.
- The September Euro FX was able to keep its head above the technical failure level of 1.2467 last Friday and continue on its recent Short Term bull market run and achieved our initial upside objective on the heels of the possibility of more Fed QE and an ECB decision to possibly fund national back bailouts in Italy and Spain.
- Should the Germany approve the bond buying action in the coming weeks, it could seriously lift the Euro higher to our Q3 upside target of 1.2797.
- Projected Daily Range: .0091
- Projected Weekly Range: .0200
- Projected Monthly Range: .0532
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/23/12 @ 1404.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/23/12 @ 1400.00. Downside Targets = 1387.50 – 1375.50.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1412.50. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1412.50 or higher.
- The September S&P’s moved back higher on Friday after holding the lows of the past two weeks and closed back above the daily mid-range after Bernanke’s Jackson Hold announcement.
- Traders should be able to ride the bull wave higher for most of the week heading into Friday should other economic indicators not severely disappoint before Friday’s NFP report.
- Projected Daily Range: 14.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 35.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 80.25
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (October):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/31/12 @ 113.45. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 114.57. Upside Target = 122.19 – 124.11.
- New highs made on current move Monday @ 115.98. Upside Target 30% achieved.
- October Brent Crude continued higher on Monday in light trading due to the US holiday following Friday’s explosion higher due to the prospect of further QE.
- As mentioned in last Thursday evening’s report, the opportunity for additional QE should propel Brent prices back near the $120 level this week before Friday’s NFP report.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.08
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.44
- Projected Monthly Range: 1305
WTI Crude Oil (October):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/27/2012 @ 95.40. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/30/2012 @ 94.62. Upside Targets = 100.04 – 101.56.
- C > HOLB (Close Above the High of the Low Bar) generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 96.93. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 96.93 or higher.
- October WTI Crude Oil reversed direction on Friday to move sharply higher after Chairman Bernanke opened the door for additional QE stimulus, pointing to a lower USD and rising commodity prices across the board.
- We expect that WTI should not only break through last week’s high of $97.72 but move on to new four-month highs back above $100 to at least $101.56 by this holiday-shortened week’s end.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.26
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.04
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.76
Natural Gas (October):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/31/2012 @ 2.768. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/2012 @ 2.799. Upside Targets = 2.836 – 2.915.
- October Natural Gas was able to continue its move higher on Friday, confirming a Short Term bottom and closing at its highest level all week.
- Based on last week’s price action, natural gas should move higher through 2.808 and as high as 2.915 before running into any further resistance and falling back below $2.60 to our Q3 objective of 2.563.
- Projected Daily Range: .107
- Projected Weekly Range: .185
- Projected Monthly Range: .665
