Oil, gold in “hurry-up and wait” mentality ahead of Bernanke

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 08/31/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/29/12 @ 1659.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/30/12 @ 1657.10. Downside Targets = 1627.70 – 1617.20.
  • December Gold continued its decline for the third straight day on Thursday before finding support just above $1,650 as this week has provided some profit taking for investors looking to cash out ahead of Jackson Hole.
  • While the direction of this market is directly tied to the comments by Chairman Bernanke, lack of significant poor data points leads us to believe that QE3 will have to be postponed and could actually indicate a drop in the precious metal.
  • Projected Daily Range: 16.10
  • Projected Weekly Range: 42.10
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/12 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/21/12 @ 1.2451. Upside Targets = 1.2623 – 1.2699.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1.2482 or lower.
  • The September Euro FX closed lower for the second straight day on Thursday as it trade back just below 1.25 as suggested in Wednesday evenings report before finishing the session back at 1.2509.
  • Based on the current price action, should Friday break to generate new weekly lows below 1.2467 it could signal drastic selling and move the market as low as 1.2395 – 1.2256. However, this market could continue to our current upside targets.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0108
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0211
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/23/12 @ 1404.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/23/12 @ 1400.00. Downside Targets = 1387.50 – 1375.50.
  • The September S&P’s dropped lower on Thursday as projected in Wednesday’s report to trade down to the exact tick of last week’s low and close below 1400 on a daily level for the first time since 08/08/12.
  • Look for the stops to be ran below Thursday’s low of 1395.25 in overnight trading before picking up momentum as Fed Chairman Bernanke delivers the speech to set the tone for equities and commodities alike for the next month.
  • Projected Daily Range: 16.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 37.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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