KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (October):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/27/12 @ 112.99. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/27/12 @ 112.26. Downside Target = 107.40 – 106.24.
- VRCB generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 113.45. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 113.45 or higher.
- October Brent Crude traded mostly higher on Thursday in another thin trading session before as the market has seemed to work out to the side after Monday’s dramatic drop.
- Friday’s speech from Jackson Hole will most likely set the tone over the coming weeks to whether Brent falls back to $106.24 or pushes higher with more QE to $122.19.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.34
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.32
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (October):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/27/12 @ 95.40. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/30/12 @ 94.62. Downside Targets = 89.82 – 88.74.
- October WTI Crude continued to fall lower on Thursday and widen the spread between itself and Brent to more than $18 as it made new two week lows.
- Like all other “risk” markets, WTI’s price action on Thursday becomes almost irrelevant as traders will have a “hurry-up and wait” mentality ahead of Chairman Bernanke’s announcement regarding central bank easing.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.22
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.76
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (October):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/27/12 @ 2.721. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/02/12 @ 2.979. Downside Targets = 2.612 – 2.563.
- Bullish ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 2.768. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 2.768 or higher.
- October Natural Gas exploded higher on Thursday back near the weekly highs after a larger than expected builds in inventories.
- Look for price action similar to last week’s on Friday as the market should move a shade higher towards the weekly highs of $2.792 and then dropping significantly lower back below $2.70.
- Projected Daily Range: .097
- Projected Weekly Range: .239
- Projected Monthly Range: .629
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/29/12 @ 1659.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/30/12 @ 1657.10. Downside Targets = 1627.70 – 1617.20.
- December Gold continued its decline for the third straight day on Thursday before finding support just above $1,650 as this week has provided some profit taking for investors looking to cash out ahead of Jackson Hole.
- While the direction of this market is directly tied to the comments by Chairman Bernanke, lack of significant poor data points leads us to believe that QE3 will have to be postponed and could actually indicate a drop in the precious metal.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.10
- Projected Weekly Range: 42.10
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/12 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/21/12 @ 1.2451. Upside Targets = 1.2623 – 1.2699.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1.2482 or lower.
- The September Euro FX closed lower for the second straight day on Thursday as it trade back just below 1.25 as suggested in Wednesday evenings report before finishing the session back at 1.2509.
- Based on the current price action, should Friday break to generate new weekly lows below 1.2467 it could signal drastic selling and move the market as low as 1.2395 – 1.2256. However, this market could continue to our current upside targets.
- Projected Daily Range: .0108
- Projected Weekly Range: .0211
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/23/12 @ 1404.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/23/12 @ 1400.00. Downside Targets = 1387.50 – 1375.50.
- The September S&P’s dropped lower on Thursday as projected in Wednesday’s report to trade down to the exact tick of last week’s low and close below 1400 on a daily level for the first time since 08/08/12.
- Look for the stops to be ran below Thursday’s low of 1395.25 in overnight trading before picking up momentum as Fed Chairman Bernanke delivers the speech to set the tone for equities and commodities alike for the next month.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 37.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
