Oil weighted by supply builds, waiting on Bernanke

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/29/12 @ 1659.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/20/12 @ 1623.00. Upside Targets = $1,644.20 – $1,657.20.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1659.00 or lower.
  • December Gold dropped lower today because of a round of profit taking from the recent three-week rally that has pushed the market nearly $100/oz. higher ahead of Friday’s Jackson Hole speech from Chairman Bernanke.
  • Bulls continue to believe that the Fed will once again intervene in the markets, which would drive inflation fears and prompt a return to safety in the metal that has taken quite the battering since early 2012.
  • Projected Daily Range: 15.90
  • Projected Weekly Range: 42.10
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/2012 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/21/2012 @ 1.2451. Upside Targets = 1.2623 – 1.2699.
  • Inside compression day generated on Wednesday.
  • The September Euro FX settled back lower on Wednesday in what has been a see-saw of a trading week with the market uneasy about Germany’s reluctance to support an ECB bond buying operation.
  • Look for an initial pullback to begin trading on Thursday before finding support just below 1.25 and then trading out to the side until Friday’s Jackson Hole speech.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0088
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0211
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/23/12 @ 1404.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/23/12 @ 1400.00. Downside Targets = 1387.50 – 1375.50.
  • VRCB generated on Wednesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1416.25. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1416.25 or higher.
  • The September S&P’s settled just a tick lower on Wednesday in another very thin trading session with the total trading volume below 1 million contracts.
  • Should the S&P’s break through Wednesday’s low of 1404.75 it should then follow through with new lows for the week and once again retest 1400 band beyond assuming there is now new QE introduced at this Friday’s Jackson Hole speech.
  • Projected Daily Range: 11.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 37.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

Comments
comments powered by Disqus