Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 08/30/12
KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (October):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/27/12 @ 112.99. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/27/12 @ 112.26. Downside Target = 107.40 – 106.24.
- VRCB-OVB combo generated on Wednesday making new lows on the current move @ 111.50.
- October Brent Crude did indeed break lower in overnight trading on Wednesday but rallied higher throughout morning trading in what eventually turned out to be a very choppy trading session.
- Based on Wednesday’s price action, Brent may see a modest start to the session but if this market fails above $113, look for a sharp decline to possibly below $110.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.38
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.32
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (October):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/27/12 @ 95.40. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/15/12 @ 94.33. Downside Targets = 89.82 – 88.74.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 95.40 or lower.
- October WTI Crude dropped significantly lower during Wednesday trading as large supply builds sent the market back below $95, although it was able to settle just below the daily mid-range.
- WTI’s bearish price action suggest that this market should continue lower on Thursday heading into the weekend towards the initial downside projected target of $92.62.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.11
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.76
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (October):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/27/2012 @ 2.721. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/02/2012 @ 2.979. Downside Targets = 2.612 – 2.563.
- Bullish OVB generated on Wednesday after making new lows on the current move @ 2.610. Downside Targets 100% achieved.
- October Natural Gas traded just two ticks through the $2.612 monthly downside objective listed since early August on Wednesday before riding a huge rally to its highest close of the week.
- Look for natural gas to continue higher in early trading Thursday before the EIA storage report as high as $2.725.
- Projected Daily Range: .096
- Projected Weekly Range: .239
- Projected Monthly Range: .629
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/29/12 @ 1659.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/20/12 @ 1623.00. Upside Targets = $1,644.20 – $1,657.20.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1659.00 or lower.
- December Gold dropped lower today because of a round of profit taking from the recent three-week rally that has pushed the market nearly $100/oz. higher ahead of Friday’s Jackson Hole speech from Chairman Bernanke.
- Bulls continue to believe that the Fed will once again intervene in the markets, which would drive inflation fears and prompt a return to safety in the metal that has taken quite the battering since early 2012.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.90
- Projected Weekly Range: 42.10
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/2012 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/21/2012 @ 1.2451. Upside Targets = 1.2623 – 1.2699.
- Inside compression day generated on Wednesday.
- The September Euro FX settled back lower on Wednesday in what has been a see-saw of a trading week with the market uneasy about Germany’s reluctance to support an ECB bond buying operation.
- Look for an initial pullback to begin trading on Thursday before finding support just below 1.25 and then trading out to the side until Friday’s Jackson Hole speech.
- Projected Daily Range: .0088
- Projected Weekly Range: .0211
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/23/12 @ 1404.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/23/12 @ 1400.00. Downside Targets = 1387.50 – 1375.50.
- VRCB generated on Wednesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1416.25. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1416.25 or higher.
- The September S&P’s settled just a tick lower on Wednesday in another very thin trading session with the total trading volume below 1 million contracts.
- Should the S&P’s break through Wednesday’s low of 1404.75 it should then follow through with new lows for the week and once again retest 1400 band beyond assuming there is now new QE introduced at this Friday’s Jackson Hole speech.
- Projected Daily Range: 11.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 37.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
