Oil may see top at $95.40 despite Hurricane Isaac

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 08/29/2012

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/17/12 @ 1622.10. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/20/12 @ 1623.00. Upside Targets = 1644.20 – 1657.20.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1659.00. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1659.00 or lower.
  • December Gold was able to erase most of its earlier losses on the day as it closed in the upper 75% of the daily trading range yet still realized its first daily setback in two weeks.
  • As indicated in last night’s report, we expected a moderate setback to fail and for this market to move back to the upside as worries of inflation continue to mount because of global inflation fears that should continue to point this market to the Q3 objective of $1,721.90.
  • Projected Daily Range: 13.80
  • Projected Weekly Range: 42.10
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/2012 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/21/2012 @ 1.2451. Upside Targets = 1.2623 – 1.2699.
  • Bullish OVB generated on Tuesday after making new 4 day lows @ 1.2467.
  • The September Euro FX roared higher in Tuesday trading as the reduction in volatility over the last few sessions turned out to be just a pause in the current Intermediate Term bear market rally.
  • Based off of today’s price action, the euro has set itself up for a continuation of the current move as it takes aim to move towards the Q3 upside objective of 1.2797 in the coming weeks.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0084
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0211
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/23/12 @ 1404.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/23/12 @ 1400.00. Downside Targets = 1387.50 – 1375.50.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1416.25. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1416.25 or higher.
  • The September S&P’s finished just slightly lower on Tuesday in a very thin trading session that saw the market find strong support a few points above 1400 and finish exactly at the day’s mid-range.
  • With a myriad of crucial economic reports due out Wednesday morning followed by Beige Book details in the afternoon, the S&Ps should see quite a bit more action during tomorrow’s trading before Friday’s Jackson Hole speech by Chairman Bernanke.
  • Projected Daily Range: 11.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 37.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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