KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (October):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 114.37 – 118.06.
- New highs made on current move Thursday @ 116.38. Upside Target over 175% achieved.
- October Brent Crude settled back below the daily mid-range on Thursday after trading to its highest contract levels since early May.
- Thursday’s price action suggests that Brent should move back near the weekly lows on Friday as it bumped up against the lower end of the Intermediate Term resistance zone of 116.70.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.91
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.84
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (October):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/15/12 @ 94.15. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/15/12 @ 94.33. Upside Targets = 98.20 – 101.26.
- Bearish VRCB-OVB combination generated on Thursday after making new highs on the current move @ 98.29.
- October WTI Crude saw some extremely bearish price action on Thursday after trading just nine ticks through the extended upside price objective mentioned in last week’s reports before dropping lower and giving up nearly all of this week’s gains.
- Expect for WTI to challenge this week’s low on Friday as a possible Short Term correction may be looming that could see this market drop as low as $92.18.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.87
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.38
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (September):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/22/2012 @ 2.849. Confirmation of a top with a close violation 0n 08/13/12 @ 2.729. Upside Targets = 2.947 – 2.989.
- Possible Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 2.849 or higher.
- September Natural Gas erased nearly all of its early losses after the EIA storage report to last trade back in the upper 90% of the sessions trading range.
- Natural gas seems to be getting quite the bounce based off the fear of tropical storm Isaac rolling into the gulf and we look for this market to continue to make runs at the upside targets due to continued bullish daily price action.
- Projected Daily Range: .137
- Projected Weekly Range: .330
- Projected Monthly Range: .629
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a bottom violation on 08/17/12 @ 1622.10. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/20/12 @ 1623.00. Upside Targets = 1644.20 – 1657.20.
- New 4 month highs made on Thursday @ 1677.50. Upside Target over 125% achieved.
- December Gold exploded higher for the third consecutive session on Thursday as its entire days trading range was above the daily Resistance Bollinger Band, moving more than two standard deviations above the mean.
- After such an explosive week higher, look for gold to setback slightly on Friday as investors do some profit taking heading into the weekend.
- Projected Daily Range: 22.60
- Projected Weekly Range: 33.90
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/2012 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/21/2012 @ 1.2451. Upside Targets = 1.2623 – 1.2699.
- VRCB generated on Thursday making new highs on the current move @ 1.2593. Upside Target 95% achieved.
- The euro blew through the daily Resistance Bollinger Band on Thursday as it made new six-week highs because of continued upward buying momentum and assumptions of more ECB funding to Spanish banks.
- Although the euro had a slowdown in volatility and the Short Term upside objectives are drawing in close, the euro may be able to sustain this rally longer than initially expected and continue higher towards the Q3 objective of 1.2797 with only slight pullbacks before a larger correction ensues.
- Projected Daily Range: .0106
- Projected Weekly Range: .0203
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/23/12 @ 1404.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/23/12 @ 1400.00. Downside Targets = 1387.50 – 1375.50.
- Bearish OVB generated on Thursday.
- The September S&P’s dropped lower below 1400 for the first time in over a week on Thursday as it generated its 3rd OVB in the last four trading sessions after becoming severely overbought.
- Although the S&P’s are in need of a serious correction down to as low as 1345, as mentioned in Wednesday’s report, increased buying near the downside target value could return to the market on anticipation of Fed stimulus being injected during next month’s meeting at Jackson Hole.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 26.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
