Natural gas trades higher as tropical storm rolls into Gulf

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 08/24/2012


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (October):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 114.37 – 118.06.
  • New highs made on current move Thursday @ 116.38. Upside Target over 175% achieved.
  • October Brent Crude settled back below the daily mid-range on Thursday after trading to its highest contract levels since early May.
  • Thursday’s price action suggests that Brent should move back near the weekly lows on Friday as it bumped up against the lower end of the Intermediate Term resistance zone of 116.70.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.91
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.84
  • Projected Monthly Range: 13.99

WTI Crude Oil (October):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/15/12 @ 94.15. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/15/12 @ 94.33. Upside Targets = 98.20 – 101.26.
  • Bearish VRCB-OVB combination generated on Thursday after making new highs on the current move @ 98.29.
  • October WTI Crude saw some extremely bearish price action on Thursday after trading just nine ticks through the extended upside price objective mentioned in last week’s reports before dropping lower and giving up nearly all of this week’s gains.
  • Expect for WTI to challenge this week’s low on Friday as a possible Short Term correction may be looming that could see this market drop as low as $92.18.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.87
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.38
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.71

Natural Gas (September):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/22/2012 @ 2.849. Confirmation of a top with a close violation 0n 08/13/12 @ 2.729. Upside Targets = 2.947 – 2.989.
  • Possible Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 2.849 or higher.
  • September Natural Gas erased nearly all of its early losses after the EIA storage report to last trade back in the upper 90% of the sessions trading range.
  • Natural gas seems to be getting quite the bounce based off the fear of tropical storm Isaac rolling into the gulf and we look for this market to continue to make runs at the upside targets due to continued bullish daily price action.
  • Projected Daily Range: .137
  • Projected Weekly Range: .330
  • Projected Monthly Range: .629

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