S&P 500 gets reprieve from Fed, eyes 2012 high

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 08/23/2012

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (October):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 114.37 – 118.06.
  • October Brent Crude erased some of its earlier losses on Wednesday as it rallied going into the close and settled in the upper 75% of the daily trading range, pointing to a higher finish going into the week’s end.
  • As mentioned in this Monday’s report, Brent should be able to continue a little bit higher into the Intermediate Term resistance zone of 116.70 – 119.06 before running into heavy resistance. Trading our full projected weekly range targets 118.37 by Friday.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.83
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.84
  • Projected Monthly Range: 13.99

WTI Crude Oil (October):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/15/12 @ 94.15. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/15/12 @ 94.33. Upside Targets = 98.20 – 101.26.
  • Inside VRCB generated on Wednesday.
  • October WTI Crude, like Brent, was able to shake off some of its earlier decline albeit in thin trading and close at its highest level since early May.
  • Once new highs for the week are made after Wednesday, the full projected weekly range should be tacked on to the weekly low and WTI could move as high as $99.70 by Friday.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.01
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.38
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.71

Natural Gas (September):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/22/2012 @ 2.849. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.979. Downside Targets = 2.871 – 2.790 – 2.612**.
  • Possible Conservative confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 2.849 or higher.
  • September Natural Gas moved back higher again on Wednesday, generating new eight day highs as it approaches the $2.90 range.
  • The current rally should fail before natural gas closes above $3 on a daily level but could move as high as $2.988 before starting its descent again.
  • Projected Daily Range: .109
  • Projected Weekly Range: .330
  • Projected Monthly Range: .629

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 08/23/2012

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar

VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (October):

·         Short Term Trends are bullish.

·         Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 114.37 – 118.06.

o    October Brent Crude erased some of its earlier losses on Wednesday as it rallied going into the close and settled in the upper 75% of the daily trading range, pointing to a higher finish going into the week’s end.

o    As mentioned in this Monday’s report, Brent should be able to continue a little bit higher into the Intermediate Term resistance zone of 116.70 – 119.06 before running into heavy resistance. Trading our full projected weekly range targets 118.37 by Friday.

·         Projected Daily Range: 1.83

·         Projected Weekly Range: 4.84

·         Projected Monthly Range: 13.99

WTI Crude Oil (October):

·         Short Term Trends are bullish.

·         Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/15/12 @ 94.15. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/15/12 @ 94.33. Upside Targets = 98.20 – 101.26.

·         Inside VRCB generated on Wednesday.

o    October WTI Crude, like Brent, was able to shake off some of its earlier decline albeit in thin trading and close at its highest level since early May.

o    Once new highs for the week are made after Wednesday, the full projected weekly range should be tacked on to the weekly low and WTI could move as high as $99.70 by Friday.

·         Projected Daily Range: 2.01

·         Projected Weekly Range: 4.38

·         Projected Monthly Range: 11.71

Natural Gas (September):

·         Short Term Trend is bearish.

·         Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/22/2012 @ 2.849. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.979. Downside Targets = 2.8712.790 – 2.612**.

·         Possible Conservative confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 2.849 or higher.

o    September Natural Gas moved back higher again on Wednesday, generating new eight day highs as it approaches the $2.90 range.

o    The current rally should fail before natural gas closes above $3 on a daily level but could move as high as $2.988 before starting its descent again.

·         Projected Daily Range: .109

·         Projected Weekly Range: .330

·         Projected Monthly Range: .629

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

·         Short Term Trends are bullish.

·         Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/17/12 @ 1622.10. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/20/12 @ 1623.00. Upside Targets = 1644.20 – 1657.20.

·         New 3 ½ month highs made on Wednesday @ 1658.20. Upside Target over 100% achieved.

o    December Gold continued to move sharply higher on Wednesday after the FOMC minutes implied the Fed was considering further easing and adding to inflation fears.

o    Gold should continue to trade higher throughout the end of the week and once it breaks 1672.30 it will be on to new 4 month highs and the Q3 objective of 1721.90.

·         Projected Daily Range: 19.20

·         Projected Weekly Range: 33.90

·         Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

·         Short Term Trends are bullish.

·         Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/2012 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/21/2012 @ 1.2451. Upside Targets = 1.2623 – 1.2699.

o    The September Euro FX has been on quite the run over the past two trading sessions after breaking through last week’s highs and closed above 1.25 for the first time in 7 weeks.

o    As we mentioned in the Monday’s report, now that the Euro violated last week’s high it should be able to continue to move higher toward the Q3 objective of 1.2797.

·         Projected Daily Range: .0109

·         Projected Weekly Range: .0203

·         Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

·         Short Term Trends are bullish.

·         Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Upside Targets = 1401.251414.25.

o    The September S&P’s were able to erase nearly all of its early session losses in afternoon trading on Wednesday as the FOMC minutes provided some relief to traders by stating that they were more actively looking into further QE.

o    This bit of news could erase some of the technical damage done in the market over the past few sessions and lead to new 2012 highs as the market may track down our Intermediate Term objective of 1446.26 before experiencing a true correction during September.

·         Projected Daily Range: 15.75

·         Projected Weekly Range: 26.75

·         Projected Monthly Range: 95.75

 

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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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