S&P 500 gets reprieve from Fed, eyes 2012 high

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 08/23/2012

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/17/12 @ 1622.10. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/20/12 @ 1623.00. Upside Targets = 1644.20 – 1657.20.
  • New 3 ½ month highs made on Wednesday @ 1658.20. Upside Target over 100% achieved.
  • December Gold continued to move sharply higher on Wednesday after the FOMC minutes implied the Fed was considering further easing and adding to inflation fears.
  • Gold should continue to trade higher throughout the end of the week and once it breaks 1672.30 it will be on to new 4 month highs and the Q3 objective of 1721.90.
  • Projected Daily Range: 19.20
  • Projected Weekly Range: 33.90
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/2012 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/21/2012 @ 1.2451. Upside Targets = 1.2623 – 1.2699.
  • The September Euro FX has been on quite the run over the past two trading sessions after breaking through last week’s highs and closed above 1.25 for the first time in 7 weeks.
  • As we mentioned in the Monday’s report, now that the Euro violated last week’s high it should be able to continue to move higher toward the Q3 objective of 1.2797.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0109
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0203
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1414.25.
  • The September S&Ps were able to erase nearly all of its early session losses in afternoon trading on Wednesday as the FOMC minutes provided some relief to traders by stating that they were more actively looking into further QE.
  • This bit of news could erase some of the technical damage done in the market over the past few sessions and lead to new 2012 highs as the market may track down our Intermediate Term objective of 1446.26 before experiencing a true correction during September.
  • Projected Daily Range: 15.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 26.75
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75

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