S&P 500 shows extreme bearish technical signal

Back to back "outside days" could signal trouble

 METALS

 

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/17/12 @ 1622.10. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/20/12 @ 1623.00. Upside Targets = 1644.20 – 1657.20.
  • New 3 month highs made on Tuesday @ 1643.60. Upside Targets 99% achieved.
    • December Gold blew through the previous 3 months highs on Wednesday after reversing the Short Term trend to bullish and looks to challenge the $1650 threshold it has not traded through since early May.
    • Our intermediate term upside target remains 1721.90 and we expect this target to be hit by the end of September if not sooner.
  • Projected Daily Range: 17.10
  • Projected Weekly Range: 33.90
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

 

CURRENCIES

 

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/2012 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/21/2012 @ 1.2451. Upside Targets = 1.2623 – 1.2699.
    • The September Euro FX finally broke out to the upside on Tuesday as investors saw new signs of life from the possibility of the ECB printing more money to backstop the Eurozone, causing the market to close at its highest level since before the July 4th holiday.
    • Should the ECB actually act on these presumptions, this market could continue to extend itself higher towards our Q3 objective of 1.2797.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0104
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0203
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

 

INDICES

 

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1414.25.
  • Bearish DOUBLE OVB generated on Tuesday after making new contract highs @ 1424.75.
    • The September S&P’s generated one of the most bearish pattern’s in our proprietary trading methodology on Tuesday that occurs less than six times in a trading year per market with back to back outside days that could lead to a sharp drop in the market.
    • Should the Fed not hint at more easing to come in the near future or before the presidential election in November, the S&P’s could see a serious decline lower with first downside objectives as low as 1345.
  • Projected Daily Range: 10.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 26.75
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75

 

About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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