Oil posts 25% gain since June low, gold looks for $1,721

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 08/20/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a bottom violation on 08/17/12 @ 1622.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/14/12 @ 1602.40. Downside Targets = 1591.10 – 1578.30.
  • TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a range violation @ 1622.10. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a close @ 1622.10 or higher.
  • December Gold remained virtually flat on Friday as the Intermediate Term resistance trend line that captures the highs as far back as the beginning of April through the most recent highs in July/August kept a lid any bullish advances in a thin Friday session.
  • The long term outlook of gold is still very bullish with an expected upside price objective of $1,721.90 due by the end of Q3.
  • Projected Daily Range: 15.80
  • Projected Weekly Range: 33.90
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/2012 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/09/2012 @ 1.2300. Downside Targets = 1.2167 – 1.2076.
  • The September Euro FX closed to the exact tick projected in Thursday evenings report on Friday as another choppy session helped generated a weekly VRCB.
  • Should the euro break through last week’s high of 1.2390 it should have no problem making a run through 1.25 and towards our Q3 objective of 1.2797.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0098
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0203
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1414.25.
  • VRCB generated on Friday making new highs on the current move @ 1416.75. Upside Target over 100% achieved.
  • The September S&P’s were able to log yet another gain on Friday as the market has now closed higher every week for the past month and a half while picking up over 12% from the June lows.
  • Once again, Friday’s price action supports a move to new contract and 2012 highs above 1419.75 towards the Intermediate Term upside objective of 1446.25.
  • Projected Daily Range: 10.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 26.75
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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