KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (October):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 114.37 – 118.06.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 112.69. Possible confirmation of a top with close @ 112.69 or higher.
- October Brent Crude lost over $1.50 on Friday over concern that the Obama administration may release some of the Strategic Petroleum Reserves due to rising energy prices to help the re-election cause.
- Brent has seen a nearly $30 rise in price over the last 8 weeks with very little resistance along the way but after trading through our Q3 objective of $113.56 it has begun to see a little pushback as it nears the technical resistance zone of 116.70 – 119.06.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.33
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.84
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/15/12 @ 94.15. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/15/12 @ 94.33. Upside Targets = 98.20 – 101.26.
- New highs made on the current move Friday @ 96.58. Upside Target 50% achieved.
- October WTI Crude continued its rise on Friday as well, closing at its highest level in just over three months representing a 25% gain in the contract value from the June low.
- Friday’s price action supports last week’s high being violated and a move up to $98.63 to fulfill the monthly projected trading range.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.79
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.38
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (September):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/02/2012 @ 3.122. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.979. Downside Targets = 2.871 – 2.790 – 2.612**.
- Inside VRCB generated on Friday.
- September Natural Gas settled a shade lower to end the week on Friday after generating an inside compression day to go along with the VRCB week that natural gas generated.
- Based on the daily and weekly price action, natural gas should break through last week’s lows of $2.685 in early trading this week and move to our monthly downside objective of $2.612 in early trading this next week.
- Projected Daily Range: .108
- Projected Weekly Range: .330
- Projected Monthly Range: .629
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a bottom violation on 08/17/12 @ 1622.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/14/12 @ 1602.40. Downside Targets = 1591.10 – 1578.30.
- TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a range violation @ 1622.10. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a close @ 1622.10 or higher.
- December Gold remained virtually flat on Friday as the Intermediate Term resistance trend line that captures the highs as far back as the beginning of April through the most recent highs in July/August kept a lid any bullish advances in a thin Friday session.
- The long term outlook of gold is still very bullish with an expected upside price objective of $1,721.90 due by the end of Q3.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.80
- Projected Weekly Range: 33.90
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/2012 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/09/2012 @ 1.2300. Downside Targets = 1.2167 – 1.2076.
- The September Euro FX closed to the exact tick projected in Thursday evenings report on Friday as another choppy session helped generated a weekly VRCB.
- Should the euro break through last week’s high of 1.2390 it should have no problem making a run through 1.25 and towards our Q3 objective of 1.2797.
- Projected Daily Range: .0098
- Projected Weekly Range: .0203
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1414.25.
- VRCB generated on Friday making new highs on the current move @ 1416.75. Upside Target over 100% achieved.
- The September S&P’s were able to log yet another gain on Friday as the market has now closed higher every week for the past month and a half while picking up over 12% from the June lows.
- Once again, Friday’s price action supports a move to new contract and 2012 highs above 1419.75 towards the Intermediate Term upside objective of 1446.25.
- Projected Daily Range: 10.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 26.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
