Oil posts 25% gain since June low, gold looks for $1,721

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 08/20/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (October):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 114.37 – 118.06.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 112.69. Possible confirmation of a top with close @ 112.69 or higher.
  • October Brent Crude lost over $1.50 on Friday over concern that the Obama administration may release some of the Strategic Petroleum Reserves due to rising energy prices to help the re-election cause.
  • Brent has seen a nearly $30 rise in price over the last 8 weeks with very little resistance along the way but after trading through our Q3 objective of $113.56 it has begun to see a little pushback as it nears the technical resistance zone of 116.70 – 119.06.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.33
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.84
  • Projected Monthly Range: 13.99

WTI Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/15/12 @ 94.15. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/15/12 @ 94.33. Upside Targets = 98.20 – 101.26.
  • New highs made on the current move Friday @ 96.58. Upside Target 50% achieved.
  • October WTI Crude continued its rise on Friday as well, closing at its highest level in just over three months representing a 25% gain in the contract value from the June low.
  • Friday’s price action supports last week’s high being violated and a move up to $98.63 to fulfill the monthly projected trading range.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.79
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.38
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.71

Natural Gas (September):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/02/2012 @ 3.122. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.979. Downside Targets = 2.871 – 2.790 – 2.612**.
  • Inside VRCB generated on Friday.
  • September Natural Gas settled a shade lower to end the week on Friday after generating an inside compression day to go along with the VRCB week that natural gas generated.
  • Based on the daily and weekly price action, natural gas should break through last week’s lows of $2.685 in early trading this week and move to our monthly downside objective of $2.612 in early trading this next week.
  • Projected Daily Range: .108
  • Projected Weekly Range: .330
  • Projected Monthly Range: .629

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