The biggest movers this morning to the upside in commodity markets are platinum and cocoa. Overall we are sensing many "risk-on" markets, including equities, are gaining strength by the day, as the relief of a European bailout is fueling rallies in many commodities and the global stock markets. The U.S. 30-year Treasury bond has had a nice rise in yield recently, and we expect this to continue if the risk-on trend continues due to positive economic data coupled with less concern over an acute catastrophe in Europe.
We also are hearing a lot of talk about Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke's and European Central Bank head Mario Draghi's speeches at the end of August/beginning of September. It looks as though market participants might be preparing for more liquidity being thrown at the European financial system, and perhaps a more positive view of the U.S. economy from Bernanke.
October ’12 Platinum futures have shot above a previous swing high level of $1430 due to acute supply disruptions in South African mines following recent labor unrest. The next upside target in our view is the $1510 (see chart) high last seen in June 2012. We think the previous high of 1430 will be major support going forward.