KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (October):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 114.37 – 118.06.
- October Brent Crude closed above $115 for the first time early May on Thursday as turmoil in the Middle East continues to brew causing fears of supply shortages and pushing the market steadily higher.
- With prices dropping significantly lower in the last few hours of trading on Thursday, Friday’s price action should move a shade lower with some profit taking heading into the weekend.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.03
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.18
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/15/12 @ 94.15. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/15/12 @ 94.33. Upside Targets = 98.20 – 101.26.
- September WTI Crude traded through our initial upside quarterly objective of $95.53 on Thursday as it traded to its highest level in three months before hitting resistance at the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
- Look for WTI to contract a bit on Friday after three straight days of gains amid an expected very thin trading session.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.80
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.57
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (September):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/02/2012 @ 3.122. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.979. Downside Targets = 2.871 – 2.790 – 2.612**.
- Bearish OVB generated on Thursday making new lows on the current move @ 2.685.
- September Natural Gas saw a sharp bounce higher in initial trading after the storage report showed a slightly less than expected build in inventories before reversing course to make new lows for the month.
- Having now made these new lows in the second half of the trading month, natural gas should follow through on Thursday’s bearish price action heading into the weekend and trade to the monthly objective of $2.612.
- Projected Daily Range: .124
- Projected Weekly Range: .338
- Projected Monthly Range: .629
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/14/12 @ 1606.50. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/14/12 @ 1602.40. Downside Targets = 1591.10 – 1578.30.
- C > HOLB (Close Above the High of Low Bar) on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1622.10. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1622.10 or higher.
- December Gold saw one of its best daily gains in nearly 2 weeks on Thursday as John Paulson and George Soros funds added significant size in their exposure to the precious metal.
- The technical’s have long been calling for an expansive mover higher as contraction over the last few months supports a breakout higher once gold breaks through $1,642.40 and could still trade as high as $1,721.90 by the end of the quarter.
- Projected Daily Range: 20.30
- Projected Weekly Range: 44.10
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
CURRENCIES
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/12 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/09/12 @ 1.2300. Downside Targets = 1.2167 – 1.2076.
- Bullish OVB generated on Thursday after making new lows on the week @ 1.2258
- The September Euro FX moved back higher on Thursday as it continues the choppy trading pattern that has dogged this market over the past 6 weeks.
- Although Thursday’s price action suggest this market should move extensively higher over the next few sessions, do not be fooled for the euro to actually close back lower near the weekly mid-range @ 1.2324.
- Projected Daily Range: .0090
- Projected Weekly Range: .0275
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
INDEXES
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1414.25.
- New contract highs made on current move Thursday @ 1415.50. Upside Targets over 105% achieved.
- The September S&P’s closed at their highest level since March 26th after breaking through the May highs of 1411.75 on Thursday as they approached the 4 year highs of 1419.75.
- Like the rest of the risk markets, we expect the S&P’s to finish the week in limited trading as some mild profit taking comes into the market.
- Projected Daily Range: 11.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 40.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
