Oil pullback expected after hitting three month high

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 08/17/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/14/12 @ 1606.50. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/14/12 @ 1602.40. Downside Targets = 1591.10 – 1578.30.
  • C > HOLB (Close Above the High of Low Bar) on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1622.10. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1622.10 or higher.
  • December Gold saw one of its best daily gains in nearly 2 weeks on Thursday as John Paulson and George Soros funds added significant size in their exposure to the precious metal.
  • The technical’s have long been calling for an expansive mover higher as contraction over the last few months supports a breakout higher once gold breaks through $1,642.40 and could still trade as high as $1,721.90 by the end of the quarter.
  • Projected Daily Range: 20.30
  • Projected Weekly Range: 44.10
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/12 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/09/12 @ 1.2300. Downside Targets = 1.2167 – 1.2076.
  • Bullish OVB generated on Thursday after making new lows on the week @ 1.2258
  • The September Euro FX moved back higher on Thursday as it continues the choppy trading pattern that has dogged this market over the past 6 weeks.
  • Although Thursday’s price action suggest this market should move extensively higher over the next few sessions, do not be fooled for the euro to actually close back lower near the weekly mid-range @ 1.2324.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0090
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0275
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1414.25.
  • New contract highs made on current move Thursday @ 1415.50. Upside Targets over 105% achieved.
  • The September S&P’s closed at their highest level since March 26th after breaking through the May highs of 1411.75 on Thursday as they approached the 4 year highs of 1419.75.
  • Like the rest of the risk markets, we expect the S&P’s to finish the week in limited trading as some mild profit taking comes into the market.
  • Projected Daily Range: 11.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 40.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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