Oil set for march to $98.73, nat gas sees $2.56 in play

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 08/16/12


COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/14/12 @ 1606.50. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/14/12 @ 1602.40. Downside Targets = 1591.10 – 1578.30.
  • New low made on current move Wednesday @ 1592.10. Downside Target 50% achieved.
  • December Gold generated bearish divergent price action on Wednesday after trading to within $1 of the expected downside target before closing in the upper 90% of the daily trading range.
  • As mentioned over the last few months, until gold can either close above $1,642.40 or break through the June lows of $1,551, this market should remain range bound.
  • Projected Daily Range: 20.20
  • Projected Weekly Range: 44.10
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00


Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/2012 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/09/2012 @ 1.2300. Downside Targets = 1.2167 – 1.2076.
  • Possible TREND REVERSAL back to bearish with a range violation @ 1.2266.
  • The September Euro FX closed back lower on Wednesday at its lowest level in almost 2 weeks as the FX currency sets up for a possible move back lower to challenge the 1.20 threshold once again should it break through to new weekly lows on Thursday.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0088
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0275
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601


E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1414.25.
  • Possible confirmation of a top @ with a range violation 1396.75. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1396.75 or lower.
  • The September S&P’s advanced higher on the session Wednesday to close at their highest level since April 4th despite trading in once the 10 thinnest trading ranges of 2012.
  • With the leading stochastic indicators continuing to remain elevated at some of the highest possible readings, any technical failures should lead to a mass and rapid exodus from the market that could lead to 4-5% drawdown with a violation of this week’s low.
  • Projected Daily Range: 10.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 40.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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