Oil set for march to $98.73, nat gas sees $2.56 in play

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 08/16/12

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 114.37 – 118.06.
  • New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 114.78. Upside Target over 135% achieved.
  • September Brent Crude was able to hold the weekly lows on Wednesday and thanks to an unexpected draw in crude supplies shot up higher to threaten the daily Resistance Bollinger Band once again.
  • Having made new highs for the week in the second half of the week should now lead Brent to a minimum weekly objective of 115.81.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.11
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.18
  • Projected Monthly Range: 13.99

WTI Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/15/12 @ 94.15. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/13/12 @ 94.33. Upside Targets = 98.20 – 101.26.
  • September WTI Crude also moved higher in large part to the miss in API estimates for a build in inventory supplies as it generated new highs for the month on Wednesday.
  • If WTI is able to violated Wednesday’s high of $94.90 it will set up a move for the rest of the month up to $98.73 toward the monthly objective and place traders in a position to buy every setback until month’s end knowing that there is only a 6.25% probability of trading below $86.92 before the month is over.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.89
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.57
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.71

Natural Gas (September):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/02/2012 @ 3.122. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.979. Downside Targets = 2.871 – 2.790 – 2.612**.
  • Inside compression day generated on Wednesday.
  • September Natural Gas reversed its close indicator back to bearish on Wednesday after the short-covering rally on Tuesday exhausted itself and the trending momentum returned back into the market.
  • If natural gas pushes through to new weekly lows, only an extremely bullish storage number would save this market from not only falling lower toward not only the monthly objective of $2.612 but the quarterly target of $2.563.
  • Projected Daily Range: .113
  • Projected Weekly Range: .338
  • Projected Monthly Range: .629

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