Natural gas rally opportunity for short positions

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 08/15/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 114.37.
  • Inside VRCB generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 111.15. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 111.15 or lower.
  • September Brent Crude was able to log a modest gain again on Tuesday despite trading within its most narrow trading range in 2 months.
  • If Brent breaks through to new weekly lows on Wednesday, this market should have a minimum weekly downside objective of 108.50.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.26
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.18
  • Projected Monthly Range: 13.99

WTI Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/10/12 @ 92.81. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/13/12 @ 92.73. Downside Targets = 89.48 - 88.01.
  • September WTI Crude outperformed Brent for the first time in quite some time as better than expected US economic data helped lift domestic crude to its second highest daily settlement in almost 3 months.
  • Today’s EIA storage numbers should dictate the market direction along with several major data points being released but it is important to note that currently the rate of change is beginning to roll to bearish.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.22
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.57
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.71

Natural Gas (September):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/02/2012 @ 3.122. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.979. Downside Targets = 2.871 – 2.790 – 2.612**.
  • C > HOLB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 2.849. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 2.849 or higher.
  • September Natural Gas was able to move higher on Tuesday after violating the VRCB from Monday before stopping just shy of $2.85.
  • Whatever rally ensues in natural gas will most likely be limited to 2.938 at the topside and should be viewed as a strong opportunity to re-enter additional short positions.
  • Projected Daily Range: .126
  • Projected Weekly Range: .338
  • Projected Monthly Range: .629

Comments
comments powered by Disqus