Natural gas rally opportunity for short positions

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 08/15/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/14/12 @ 1606.50. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/14/12 @ 1602.40. Downside Targets = 1591.10 – 1578.30.
  • Confirmation of a TREND REVERSAL to bearish on a range violation @ 1606.50. Confirmation of a TREND REVERSAL to bearish with a close @ 1602.40.
  • December Gold reversed the Short Term trend back to bearish on Tuesday after failing to break through July’s high on the recent up-move and traded to within $2.50 of the expected downside target.
  • With the maximum expected downside price action having traded so early in the week, look for gold to move back higher on Wednesday to back and fill as has been the case since late June. However, our downside targets stay intact.
  • Projected Daily Range: 22.30
  • Projected Weekly Range: 44.10
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/12 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/09/12 @ 1.2300. Downside Targets = 1.2167 – 1.2076.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.2379 or lower.
  • The September Euro FX finished virtually unchanged on Tuesday after giving back all of its early gains on the session in very thin trading.
  • With investors sitting on the sidelines as they await for decisive action from the ECB, the euro is most likely to take the path of recent gold trading and chop back and forth until clarity for future economic stabilization plans are seriously discussed.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0087
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0275
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1414.25.
  • New highs made on current move Tuesday @ 1409.50. Upside Targets 95% achieved.
  • The September S&P’s closed lower on Tuesday after trading to within 2.25 points of the May 1st highs as they closed below the daily mid-range, pointing towards a lower Wednesday.
  • With leading stochastic indicators as well as daily price action and rate of change shifting to bearish, the S&P’s could see a significant drop should the slew of economic data being released tomorrow underwhelm investors and drop as low as 1377.50 by week’s end.
  • Projected Daily Range: 15.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 40.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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