KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 114.37.
- Inside VRCB generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 111.15. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 111.15 or lower.
- September Brent Crude was able to log a modest gain again on Tuesday despite trading within its most narrow trading range in 2 months.
- If Brent breaks through to new weekly lows on Wednesday, this market should have a minimum weekly downside objective of 108.50.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.26
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.18
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/10/12 @ 92.81. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/13/12 @ 92.73. Downside Targets = 89.48 - 88.01.
- September WTI Crude outperformed Brent for the first time in quite some time as better than expected US economic data helped lift domestic crude to its second highest daily settlement in almost 3 months.
- Today’s EIA storage numbers should dictate the market direction along with several major data points being released but it is important to note that currently the rate of change is beginning to roll to bearish.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.22
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.57
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (September):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/02/2012 @ 3.122. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.979. Downside Targets = 2.871 – 2.790 – 2.612**.
- C > HOLB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 2.849. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 2.849 or higher.
- September Natural Gas was able to move higher on Tuesday after violating the VRCB from Monday before stopping just shy of $2.85.
- Whatever rally ensues in natural gas will most likely be limited to 2.938 at the topside and should be viewed as a strong opportunity to re-enter additional short positions.
- Projected Daily Range: .126
- Projected Weekly Range: .338
- Projected Monthly Range: .629
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/14/12 @ 1606.50. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/14/12 @ 1602.40. Downside Targets = 1591.10 – 1578.30.
- Confirmation of a TREND REVERSAL to bearish on a range violation @ 1606.50. Confirmation of a TREND REVERSAL to bearish with a close @ 1602.40.
- December Gold reversed the Short Term trend back to bearish on Tuesday after failing to break through July’s high on the recent up-move and traded to within $2.50 of the expected downside target.
- With the maximum expected downside price action having traded so early in the week, look for gold to move back higher on Wednesday to back and fill as has been the case since late June. However, our downside targets stay intact.
- Projected Daily Range: 22.30
- Projected Weekly Range: 44.10
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/12 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/09/12 @ 1.2300. Downside Targets = 1.2167 – 1.2076.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.2379 or lower.
- The September Euro FX finished virtually unchanged on Tuesday after giving back all of its early gains on the session in very thin trading.
- With investors sitting on the sidelines as they await for decisive action from the ECB, the euro is most likely to take the path of recent gold trading and chop back and forth until clarity for future economic stabilization plans are seriously discussed.
- Projected Daily Range: .0087
- Projected Weekly Range: .0275
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1414.25.
- New highs made on current move Tuesday @ 1409.50. Upside Targets 95% achieved.
- The September S&P’s closed lower on Tuesday after trading to within 2.25 points of the May 1st highs as they closed below the daily mid-range, pointing towards a lower Wednesday.
- With leading stochastic indicators as well as daily price action and rate of change shifting to bearish, the S&P’s could see a significant drop should the slew of economic data being released tomorrow underwhelm investors and drop as low as 1377.50 by week’s end.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 40.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
