Oil technicals expect move lower, nat gas set for quick drop

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 08/14/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/07/12 @ 1618.90. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/09/12 @ 1620.20. Upside Targets = 1645.10 – 1662.60.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1606.50. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 1606.50 or lower.
  • December Gold gave back nearly all of last week’s gains on Monday as it closed at its lowest level in 6 trading sessions as the battle between the bulls and bears rages on.
  • Gold has seemed to firmly plant itself in a thin trading range so if the market does break down this week look for any selloff to be limited to $1,591.10.
  • Projected Daily Range: 16.80
  • Projected Weekly Range: 44.10
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/08/2012 @ 1.2346. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/09/2012 @ 1.2300. Downside Targets = 1.2167 – 1.2076.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.2379. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1.2379 or higher.
  • The September Euro FX closed above the high of the low day on the current selloff Monday in a nice day for the currency despite economic data showing Eurozone uncertainty has eroded global growth prospects.
  • With European GDP reports due out on Tuesday even bad news could still help prop up the currency as the central banks will be expected to aide with further stimulus which could propel the Euro FX higher towards our Q3 objective of 1.2797.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0104
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0275
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1414.25.
  • The September S&P’s shook off early losses on Monday as they once again set new 3 month closing highs while continuing to work higher towards our upside target of 1414.25.
  • With the S&P’s having already violated last week’s VRCB high, a strong PPI and Retail Sales report will be necessary to continue to fuel the legs in this now 11 week bull rally.
  • Projected Daily Range: 13.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 40.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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