KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 114.37.
- September Brent Crude moved sharply higher to begin this week’s action on Monday before losing steam heading into the close as it settled in the lower 25% of the day’s trading range.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.06
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.18
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/10/12 @ 92.81. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/13/12 @ 92.73. Downside Targets = 89.48 - 88.01.
- Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 92.73.
- September WTI Crude exhibited bullish divergent price action on Monday after logging both a higher high and higher low yet closing below the previous session’s close and below the daily mid-range.
- This price action should result in an early move higher on Tuesday before selling off and retesting last week’s low as it works towards the downside weekly objective of 89.57.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.89
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.57
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (September):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/02/2012 @ 3.122. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.979. Downside Targets = 2.871 – 2.790 – 2.612**.
- VRCB generated on Monday making new lows on current move @ 2.715.
- September Natural Gas closed lower on Monday after trading down to the daily Support Bollinger Band as commodity markets across the board were very thinly traded.
- Now that natural gas has broken through the July lows this market should lose another 10 cents quickly on its way down to $2.612.
- Projected Daily Range: .158
- Projected Weekly Range: .338
- Projected Monthly Range: .629
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/07/12 @ 1618.90. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/09/12 @ 1620.20. Upside Targets = 1645.10 – 1662.60.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1606.50. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 1606.50 or lower.
- December Gold gave back nearly all of last week’s gains on Monday as it closed at its lowest level in 6 trading sessions as the battle between the bulls and bears rages on.
- Gold has seemed to firmly plant itself in a thin trading range so if the market does break down this week look for any selloff to be limited to $1,591.10.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.80
- Projected Weekly Range: 44.10
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/08/2012 @ 1.2346. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/09/2012 @ 1.2300. Downside Targets = 1.2167 – 1.2076.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.2379. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1.2379 or higher.
- The September Euro FX closed above the high of the low day on the current selloff Monday in a nice day for the currency despite economic data showing Eurozone uncertainty has eroded global growth prospects.
- With European GDP reports due out on Tuesday even bad news could still help prop up the currency as the central banks will be expected to aide with further stimulus which could propel the Euro FX higher towards our Q3 objective of 1.2797.
- Projected Daily Range: .0104
- Projected Weekly Range: .0275
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1414.25.
- The September S&P’s shook off early losses on Monday as they once again set new 3 month closing highs while continuing to work higher towards our upside target of 1414.25.
- With the S&P’s having already violated last week’s VRCB high, a strong PPI and Retail Sales report will be necessary to continue to fuel the legs in this now 11 week bull rally.
- Projected Daily Range: 13.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 40.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
