Oil technicals expect move lower, nat gas set for quick drop

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 08/14/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 114.37.
  • September Brent Crude moved sharply higher to begin this week’s action on Monday before losing steam heading into the close as it settled in the lower 25% of the day’s trading range.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.06
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.18
  • Projected Monthly Range: 13.99

WTI Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/10/12 @ 92.81. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/13/12 @ 92.73. Downside Targets = 89.48 - 88.01.
  • Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 92.73.
  • September WTI Crude exhibited bullish divergent price action on Monday after logging both a higher high and higher low yet closing below the previous session’s close and below the daily mid-range.
  • This price action should result in an early move higher on Tuesday before selling off and retesting last week’s low as it works towards the downside weekly objective of 89.57.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.89
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.57
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.71

Natural Gas (September):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/02/2012 @ 3.122. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.979. Downside Targets = 2.871 – 2.790 – 2.612**.
  • VRCB generated on Monday making new lows on current move @ 2.715.
  • September Natural Gas closed lower on Monday after trading down to the daily Support Bollinger Band as commodity markets across the board were very thinly traded.
  • Now that natural gas has broken through the July lows this market should lose another 10 cents quickly on its way down to $2.612.
  • Projected Daily Range: .158
  • Projected Weekly Range: .338
  • Projected Monthly Range: .629

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