Crude oil at crossroads

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 08/13/12

 

METALS

 

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/07/12 @ 1618.90. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/09/12 @ 1620.20. Upside Targets = 1645.10 – 1662.60.
  • OVB generated on Friday as it made new highs on the current move @ 1629.70.
    • December Gold generated more range on Friday than throughout the whole week but failed to violate last week’s high on its way to another VRCB week.
    • Gold’s close on Friday was less than inspiring but should it manage to accelerate higher on the heels of some solid price action, gold should have no problem breaking through the past 3 months dismal trading range and on its way to our Q3 objective of $1721.90.
  • Projected Daily Range: 17.90
  • Projected Weekly Range: 44.10
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

 

CURRENCIES

 

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/08/2012 @ 1.2346. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/09/2012 @ 1.2300. Downside Targets = 1.2167 – 1.2076.
  • New lows made on the current move Friday @ 1.2245. Downside Targets 60% achieved.
    • The September Euro FX remained virtually flat on Friday as it caught an hour long rally during morning trading hours that erased overnight losses to close above the daily mid-range.
    • After giving up over 200 points from Monday’s high, the euro may have just experienced a short-covering rally as traders no longer want to hold trades into the weekend so look for Monday’s price action to set the tone for the week as we expect another breakdown as this market retests the 1.20 threshold.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0092
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0275
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

 

INDICES

 

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1414.25.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1391.75. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 1391.75 or lower.
    • The September S&P’s did break down in overnight trading on poor Chinese trade data but they quickly erased those losses when the US came online with hopes for further Chinese economic easing measures lifting the market.
    • As earnings season comes to a close, the market will have to focus on more macro driven data points which have not been exactly stellar in recent times so unless more QE from central banks hits the newswire, the S&P’s could see a rapid decline in value.
      • Note: the S&P’s generated a weekly VRCB indicator that lets us know volatility is running very thin and a shift in market direction could be looming for the Intermediate Term.
  • Projected Daily Range: 16.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 40.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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