Crude oil at crossroads

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 08/13/12

 

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar

VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

 

ENERGIES

 

Brent Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 114.37.
  • Bullish OVB generated on Friday as it made new highs for the current move @ 113.54. Upside Target over 90% achieved.
    • September Brent Crude rallied back towards the end of Friday’s session to last trade on the highest tick of the week but just inside of the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
    • Based on Friday’s price action, Brent should break through last week’s highs and hit both our quarterly upside projection and the recent Short Term target before trading through Friday’s low.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.19
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.18
  • Projected Monthly Range: 13.99

 

WTI Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/10/12 @ 92.81. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 91.40. Upside Targets = 95.27 – 96.95.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 92.81 or lower.
    • September WTI Crude was able to partially confirm a short-term top on Friday but rallied back hard before the close of the pit session to settle above the day’s mid-range.
    • WTI is beginning to show some premature signs of a possible intermediate-term top forming in the market as recent short-term confirmed highs have lost their bullish force to move higher as the market approaches $95.
      • If WTI can close on (2) consecutive days above $95 then it will have an open lane above all the way until 103.68, if not, look for this market to fall back below $85.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.16
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.57
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.71

 

Natural Gas (September):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/02/2012 @ 3.122. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.979. Downside Targets = 2.871 – 2.790 – 2.612**.
  • New lows made on current move Friday @ 2.760. Downside Targets over 115% achieved.
    • September Natural Gas was shredded again on Friday as it broke through to new weekly lows before stopping just above the daily Support Bollinger Band.
    • After being severely oversold into intraday support, natural gas may receive a slight bounce higher on Monday but look for last week’s low to be violated as it works its way lower throughout the week to our Intermediate Term downside objective of 2.612.
  • Projected Daily Range: .158
  • Projected Weekly Range: .338
  • Projected Monthly Range: .629

 

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