KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 114.37.
- Bullish OVB generated on Friday as it made new highs for the current move @ 113.54. Upside Target over 90% achieved.
- September Brent Crude rallied back towards the end of Friday’s session to last trade on the highest tick of the week but just inside of the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
- Based on Friday’s price action, Brent should break through last week’s highs and hit both our quarterly upside projection and the recent Short Term target before trading through Friday’s low.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.19
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.18
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/10/12 @ 92.81. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 91.40. Upside Targets = 95.27 – 96.95.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 92.81 or lower.
- September WTI Crude was able to partially confirm a short-term top on Friday but rallied back hard before the close of the pit session to settle above the day’s mid-range.
- WTI is beginning to show some premature signs of a possible intermediate-term top forming in the market as recent short-term confirmed highs have lost their bullish force to move higher as the market approaches $95.
- If WTI can close on (2) consecutive days above $95 then it will have an open lane above all the way until 103.68, if not, look for this market to fall back below $85.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.16
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.57
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (September):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/02/2012 @ 3.122. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.979. Downside Targets = 2.871 – 2.790 – 2.612**.
- New lows made on current move Friday @ 2.760. Downside Targets over 115% achieved.
- September Natural Gas was shredded again on Friday as it broke through to new weekly lows before stopping just above the daily Support Bollinger Band.
- After being severely oversold into intraday support, natural gas may receive a slight bounce higher on Monday but look for last week’s low to be violated as it works its way lower throughout the week to our Intermediate Term downside objective of 2.612.
- Projected Daily Range: .158
- Projected Weekly Range: .338
- Projected Monthly Range: .629
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/07/12 @ 1618.90. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/09/12 @ 1620.20. Upside Targets = 1645.10 – 1662.60.
- OVB generated on Friday as it made new highs on the current move @ 1629.70.
- December Gold generated more range on Friday than throughout the whole week but failed to violate last week’s high on its way to another VRCB week.
- Gold’s close on Friday was less than inspiring but should it manage to accelerate higher on the heels of some solid price action, gold should have no problem breaking through the past 3 months dismal trading range and on its way to our Q3 objective of $1721.90.
- Projected Daily Range: 17.90
- Projected Weekly Range: 44.10
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
CURRENCIES
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/08/2012 @ 1.2346. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/09/2012 @ 1.2300. Downside Targets = 1.2167 – 1.2076.
- New lows made on the current move Friday @ 1.2245. Downside Targets 60% achieved.
- The September Euro FX remained virtually flat on Friday as it caught an hour long rally during morning trading hours that erased overnight losses to close above the daily mid-range.
- After giving up over 200 points from Monday’s high, the euro may have just experienced a short-covering rally as traders no longer want to hold trades into the weekend so look for Monday’s price action to set the tone for the week as we expect another breakdown as this market retests the 1.20 threshold.
- Projected Daily Range: .0092
- Projected Weekly Range: .0275
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
INDICES
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1414.25.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1391.75. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 1391.75 or lower.
- The September S&P’s did break down in overnight trading on poor Chinese trade data but they quickly erased those losses when the US came online with hopes for further Chinese economic easing measures lifting the market.
- As earnings season comes to a close, the market will have to focus on more macro driven data points which have not been exactly stellar in recent times so unless more QE from central banks hits the newswire, the S&P’s could see a rapid decline in value.
- Note: the S&P’s generated a weekly VRCB indicator that lets us know volatility is running very thin and a shift in market direction could be looming for the Intermediate Term.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 40.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
