Can the stock market rally last through the 2012 election?

Market Pulse: August 13

COT Data

Now take a real good look at the weekly chart below. You can see the weekly rally started the first week of October 2011 and did not show signs of weakening until the first week of April 2012. Looking closer you can see how Big Money was trading in the S&P back in October 2011 as the market hit lows below 1,110.00.  Now look at the posture change of Big Money on the rally up. Interesting isn’t it? The COT even showed the weekly correction down in April-May as Big Money liquidated.

This past Friday Dealer/Intermediaries added to net shorts at -351,021 contracts as did Leveraged Funds now -444,124 contracts net short. So who is buying? Asset Managers are now net long 603,421 contracts. An interesting view is the difference between how Leveraged Funds are trading in the S&P as compared to the Dow. 

If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the NEW COT report to your benefit get instant access to my new e-book "What Lies Beneath ALL Trends". It is filled with eye opening information.Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals...

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