Will stock market bear accompany arrival of Fall Equinox?

Markets closed higher last week, but on noticeably lower volume

Daily S & P 500 Emini Futures contract with Cumulative Volume (CV)

emini, cumulative, volume

Weekly S & P 500 Emini Futures contract with Cumulative Volume (CV)

emini, cumulative, volume

Cumulative Volume (CV) is another market sore point (see accompanying Weekly charts). While CV moved with the market to a new long-term high into the fall of 2007, during the 2008 decline huge volume came into the market on the downside, and CV has never recovered from those volume losses. In fact, CV has only retraced about 50% of its decline since the 2007 highs to suggest, yet again, that the underpinnings of the uptrend since March 2009 have been fueled, progressively, by weaker hands.

Index Daily/Weekly/Monthly Stops Weekly Monthly
 

8/13

8/14

8/15

8/16

8/17

8/17

8/31

S&P 500 Index

SELL 1368.71

SELL 1374.90

SELL 1380.21

SELL 1384.83

SELL 1387.77

SELL 1313.24

SELL 1229.29

Dow Jones Industrials

SELL 12917.38

SELL 12966.68

SELL 13004.56

SELL 13035.18

SELL 13052.24

SELL 12438.80

SELL 11829.11

NASDAQ Composite

SELL 2925.28

SELL 2942.56

SELL 2957.09

SELL 2969.56

SELL 2978.92

SELL 2825.49

SELL 2616.71

Value Line Index

SELL 2841.27

SELL 2856.03

SELL 2871.73

SELL 2887.27

SELL 2899.77

SELL 2780.15

SELL 2649.82

Note: Stop levels, a function of the extant trend, are based on the trailing moving average price channels for the Highs or the Lows of an index. Whether or not a specific index is suggesting a “Buy” or Sell” is determined by whether or not index prices are above or below the current channel Stop levels. Stop levels should only be used as an entry or exit guide and in conjunction with other market entry and exit strategies.

Another market barometer, the Call/Put Dollar Value Flow Line (CPFL), has shown some improvement over the past month on the short-term cycle, but on a longer-term basis that indicator also remains well below a major resistance high put in place the week ending February 25, 2011. CPFL was also last holding about 65% below its 2000 plot high.

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