Oil risks selloff if $93 is violated, S&P looks top-heavy

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 08/10/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/07/12 @ 1618.90. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/09/12 @ 1620.20. Upside Targets = 1645.10 – 1662.60.
  • VRCB generated on Thursday after confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1620.20.
  • December Gold had another quiet trading session on Thursday in what is shaping up to be Gold’s smallest trading range over a week dating back over five years.
  • While both bulls and bears in this market have been fighting in this market over direction going on three months now, our bias is still positive but will not be confirmed until Gold can trade through $1,642.40.
  • Projected Daily Range: 15.60
  • Projected Weekly Range: 61.20
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/08/2012 @ 1.2346. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/09/2012 @ 1.2300. Downside Targets = 1.2176 – 1.2067.
  • Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 1.2300.
  • The September Euro FX dropped to its lowest settlement in a week on Thursday as a strong USD buoyed by a decline in the US trade deficit helped push the FX currency lower.
  • The Euro will need to see some ECB stimulus to regain some of the ground it has lost from last week’s big rally but overall this market should continue to work lower to retest the July lows @ 1.2051.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0089
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0267
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1414.25.
  • The September S&Ps closed above 1400 for the first time since May 1st as it reaches a key Parrish Hicks indicator that has typically indicated a Short Term top is soon to follow.
  • With Chinese economic data having been very bleak over the past month, a miss in Chinese Trade Imports could signal a quick sell-off in US equity markets and nearly eliminate this week’s gains.
  • Projected Daily Range: 13.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 47.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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