KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Band
Brent Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 114.37.
- September Brent Crude once again closed above the daily Resistance Bollinger Band as it traded to within just 3 ticks of our Q3 objective of 113.56 supported by increasing tensions with the US and Iran due to fresh talks of Iran’s advancement of nuclear weapons.
- Currently Brent is overbought into Short Term resistance and should see a modest correction beginning next week but could be held up if further economic sanctions are enforced against the OPEC member nation.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.59
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.69
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 90.96. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 91.40. Upside Targets = 95.27 – 96.95.
- Inside VRCB generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 92.81. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 92.81 or lower.
- September WTI Crude settled virtually flat on the day while having its least volatile day of trading dating all the way back to the end before Memorial Day.
- If Thursday’s low of $93.07 is violated, WTI could see a sizable sell-off over the next 3-5 sessions before finding support at $89.35.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.89
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.49
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (September):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/02/2012 @ 3.122. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.979. Downside Targets = 2.871 – 2.790.
- Bearish OVB generated on Thursday after making new highs on current move @ 3.120.
- September Natural Gas had one of its more exciting trading days in recent history as it generated a daily triple reversal in terms of price action after a less than expected build in storage pushed the market over $3.10 but was slammed going into the last half hour of trading, losing more than $0.13 cents during that period.
- Look for natural gas to see a modest increase in price during early trading Friday before dropping lower to end the week in the lower 30% of the weekly trading range setting up for a move toward our Intermediate Term downside objective of 2.612.
- Projected Daily Range: .142
- Projected Weekly Range: .343
- Projected Monthly Range: .629
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/07/12 @ 1618.90. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/09/12 @ 1620.20. Upside Targets = 1645.10 – 1662.60.
- VRCB generated on Thursday after confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1620.20.
- December Gold had another quiet trading session on Thursday in what is shaping up to be Gold’s smallest trading range over a week dating back over five years.
- While both bulls and bears in this market have been fighting in this market over direction going on three months now, our bias is still positive but will not be confirmed until Gold can trade through $1,642.40.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.60
- Projected Weekly Range: 61.20
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/08/2012 @ 1.2346. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/09/2012 @ 1.2300. Downside Targets = 1.2176 – 1.2067.
- Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 1.2300.
- The September Euro FX dropped to its lowest settlement in a week on Thursday as a strong USD buoyed by a decline in the US trade deficit helped push the FX currency lower.
- The Euro will need to see some ECB stimulus to regain some of the ground it has lost from last week’s big rally but overall this market should continue to work lower to retest the July lows @ 1.2051.
- Projected Daily Range: .0089
- Projected Weekly Range: .0267
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1414.25.
- The September S&Ps closed above 1400 for the first time since May 1st as it reaches a key Parrish Hicks indicator that has typically indicated a Short Term top is soon to follow.
- With Chinese economic data having been very bleak over the past month, a miss in Chinese Trade Imports could signal a quick sell-off in US equity markets and nearly eliminate this week’s gains.
- Projected Daily Range: 13.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 47.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
