Oil risks selloff if $93 is violated, S&P looks top-heavy

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 08/10/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Band

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 114.37.
  • September Brent Crude once again closed above the daily Resistance Bollinger Band as it traded to within just 3 ticks of our Q3 objective of 113.56 supported by increasing tensions with the US and Iran due to fresh talks of Iran’s advancement of nuclear weapons.
  • Currently Brent is overbought into Short Term resistance and should see a modest correction beginning next week but could be held up if further economic sanctions are enforced against the OPEC member nation.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.59
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.69
  • Projected Monthly Range: 13.99

WTI Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 90.96. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 91.40. Upside Targets = 95.27 – 96.95.
  • Inside VRCB generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 92.81. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 92.81 or lower.
  • September WTI Crude settled virtually flat on the day while having its least volatile day of trading dating all the way back to the end before Memorial Day.
  • If Thursday’s low of $93.07 is violated, WTI could see a sizable sell-off over the next 3-5 sessions before finding support at $89.35.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.89
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.49
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.71

Natural Gas (September):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/02/2012 @ 3.122. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.979. Downside Targets = 2.871 – 2.790.
  • Bearish OVB generated on Thursday after making new highs on current move @ 3.120.
  • September Natural Gas had one of its more exciting trading days in recent history as it generated a daily triple reversal in terms of price action after a less than expected build in storage pushed the market over $3.10 but was slammed going into the last half hour of trading, losing more than $0.13 cents during that period.
  • Look for natural gas to see a modest increase in price during early trading Friday before dropping lower to end the week in the lower 30% of the weekly trading range setting up for a move toward our Intermediate Term downside objective of 2.612.
  • Projected Daily Range: .142
  • Projected Weekly Range: .343
  • Projected Monthly Range: .629

Page 1 of 2 >>
Comments
comments powered by Disqus