KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 109.88 – 111.83.
- September Brent Crude continued its rise higher on Thursday after trading to within $0.29 of our Q3 upside target of $113.56 and closed above the Resistance Bollinger Band for the second straight day.
- With the jobless claims number due our early Thursday morning, look for the results to drive the market direction.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.57
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.69
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 90.96. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 91.40. Upside Targets = 95.27 – 96.95.
- September WTI Crude lost ground for the first time this week on Wednesday as it was unable to hold on to the early gains it generated after a larger than expected supply draw.
- Crude’s price action on Wednesday suggests that this market could be nearing a Short Term top and if WTI closes below Wednesday’s low of 92.82 the market should trade down to 89.63.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.08
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.49
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (September):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/02/2012 @ 3.122. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.979. Downside Targets = 2.871 – 2.790.
- Double VRCB combination generated on Wednesday.
- September Natural Gas dropped lower on Wednesday ahead of Thursday’s EIA storage number with higher estimates for builds than over the previous few weeks.
- Should the storage projection estimates hold up, natural gas will drop sharply lower to coincide with last week’s bearish price action and volatility and move lower toward our monthly downside target of $2.612.
- Projected Daily Range: .113
- Projected Weekly Range: .343
- Projected Monthly Range: .629
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/07/12 @ 1618.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/31/12 @ 1614.60. Upside Targets = 1645.10 – 1662.60.
- December Gold settled back higher on Wednesday in another light trading session as it once again found some buyers as it neared the $1,600/oz. level.
- If gold is able to generate new highs for the week on Thursday, look for the current rally to extend itself through the July highs towards our upside targets.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.60
- Projected Weekly Range: 61.20
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/08/2012 @ 1.2346. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/26/2012 @ 1.2293. Downside Target = 1.2140 – 1.2074.
- Possible Conservative confirmation of a top with a close @ 1.2346 or lower.
- The September Euro FX sank lower on Wednesday as worries over Eurozone debt crept back into the market due to the large obstacles to overcome in getting the fiscal landscape back in order.
- The Euro will have a tough time finding itself attractive to investors if it moves back above 1.25 as the high borrowing cost and weak economies of many euro members may prove to be more of a problem the ECB president Draghi can fix.
- Projected Daily Range: .0089
- Projected Weekly Range: .0267
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1414.25.
- The September S&P’s were able to once again log gains on the session yet found it tough to break through to new weekly highs as traders seem to be uncomfortable with the stock market at these elevated levels despite massive concerns about the health of our economy and no new fed aid.
- Thursday’s jobless claims should provide the ammunition traders need to jump into the market, either short or long, in what has been a very lazy week thus far.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 47.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
