Natural gas setting up for move higher, gold eyes $1,642

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 08/07/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/31/12 @ 1612.30. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/31/12 @ 1614.60. Downside Targets = 1596.10 – 1586.60.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1618.90. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1618.90 or higher.
  • December Gold rallied higher on Monday in a light trading session to close at its highest level out of the past five sessions.
  • Once gold confirms a Short Term bottom by trading above last Thursday’s high of $1,618.80, look for this market to continue to move higher, eventually breaking through the June highs at $1,642.40.
  • Projected Daily Range: 22.30
  • Projected Weekly Range: 61.20
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/2012 @ 1.2398. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/26/2012 @ 1.2293. Upside Target = 1.2512 – 1.2609.
  • The September Euro FX was able to squeak out a modest gain on Monday despite closing the session almost exactly at the overnight opening price.
  • Monday’s price action suggests that should the Euro trade below 1.2347, this market could drop sharply back below 1.2250 to retest last week’s low @ 1.2140.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0129
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0267
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1414.25.
  • VRCB generated on Monday after making new highs on the current move @ 1395.75.
  • The September S&P’s gave back most of its early gains on Monday as it closed in the lower 40% of the day’s range after running into heavy resistance just below the 1400 mark.
  • The S&P’s may be able to string along a couple more sessions of gains but the volatility (or lack thereof) shown in yesterday’s price action suggest that this market may be ready to roll over and make another 3-5 day plunge back towards 1367.50. However, taking out yesterday’s high of 1395.75 will bring our upside targets into play.
  • Projected Daily Range: 24.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 47.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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