KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
RBB Resistance Bollinger Band
SBB Support Bollinger Band
Brent Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 109.88 – 111.83.
- September Brent Crude continued higher on Monday as it traded to within 11 ticks of our initial upside objective while closing just off its highs and below the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
- Look for Brent to continue moving higher on Tuesday as it looks to not only achieve our Short Term targets but also break the 4 month highs above 113.64.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.51
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.69
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 90.96. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 91.40. Upside Targets = 95.27 – 96.95.
- September WTI Crude advanced for the second straight day on Monday in relatively thin trading as it continued higher to challenge the July highs @ 93.25.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.34
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.49
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (September):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/02/2012 @ 3.122. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.979. Downside Targets = 2.871 – 2.790.
- New lows made on current move Monday @ 2.801. Downside Target 99% achieved.
- September Natural Gas initially broke through last week’s low in early trading on Monday before rallying higher throughout most of the day’s pit session to settle back above $2.90.
- Monday’s price action suggest another Short Term move back higher after achieving 99% of our downside price target before running into strong resistance at $3.186.
- Projected Daily Range: .129
- Projected Weekly Range: .343
- Projected Monthly Range: .629
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/31/12 @ 1612.30. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/31/12 @ 1614.60. Downside Targets = 1596.10 – 1586.60.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1618.90. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1618.90 or higher.
- December Gold rallied higher on Monday in a light trading session to close at its highest level out of the past five sessions.
- Once gold confirms a Short Term bottom by trading above last Thursday’s high of $1,618.80, look for this market to continue to move higher, eventually breaking through the June highs at $1,642.40.
- Projected Daily Range: 22.30
- Projected Weekly Range: 61.20
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/2012 @ 1.2398. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/26/2012 @ 1.2293. Upside Target = 1.2512 – 1.2609.
- The September Euro FX was able to squeak out a modest gain on Monday despite closing the session almost exactly at the overnight opening price.
- Monday’s price action suggests that should the Euro trade below 1.2347, this market could drop sharply back below 1.2250 to retest last week’s low @ 1.2140.
- Projected Daily Range: .0129
- Projected Weekly Range: .0267
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1414.25.
- VRCB generated on Monday after making new highs on the current move @ 1395.75.
- The September S&P’s gave back most of its early gains on Monday as it closed in the lower 40% of the day’s range after running into heavy resistance just below the 1400 mark.
- The S&P’s may be able to string along a couple more sessions of gains but the volatility (or lack thereof) shown in yesterday’s price action suggest that this market may be ready to roll over and make another 3-5 day plunge back towards 1367.50. However, taking out yesterday’s high of 1395.75 will bring our upside targets into play.
- Projected Daily Range: 24.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 47.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
