KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 109.88 – 111.83.
- New highs made on current move Friday @ 109.13.
- September Brent Crude moved sharply higher on Friday due to a surprisingly bullish NFP report which brought this market to new 11 week highs after trading within $0.75 of our initial upside objective.
- Once Brent moves through last week’s high, look for this market to continue onward towards our Q3 upside objective of $113.56.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.84
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.69
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 90.96. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 91.40. Upside Targets = 95.27 – 96.95.
- September WTI Crude exploded higher on Friday following the bullish NFP report in the same type of formation that confirmed the lows back in late June, suggesting that this move could extend itself back above $95 for the first time in nearly two months.
- WTI should see a modest setback after reaching overbought intraday levels on Friday before resuming the upward momentum as it stretches for our Q3 target of $95.53.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.54
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.49
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (September):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/02/2012 @ 3.122. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.979. Downside Targets = 2.871 – 2.790.
- New lows made on current move Friday @ 2.840.
- September Natural Gas continued its descent lower on Friday as it traded through our initial Short Term downside objective 2.871 while closing at its lowest level in over 2 weeks.
- Based on Friday’s price action, natural gas should continue lower throughout most of the week after an early week short-covering rally back near $3.00 before working its way towards the Intermediate Term target of 2.612.
- Projected Daily Range: .164
- Projected Weekly Range: .343
- Projected Monthly Range: .629
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/31/12 @ 1612.30. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/31/12 @ 1614.60. Downside Targets = 1596.10 – 1586.60.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1618.90. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1618.90 or higher.
- December Gold rebounded firmly on Friday, closing just a few ticks of the session high after trading exactly to our downside price objectives listed last week.
- Should gold be able to sustain the momentum it has garnered over the past few weeks, a move above last week’s high of $1,631.60 could be the last time gold trades below $1,600 before reaching our Q3 objective of $1,721.90.
- Projected Daily Range: 26.90
- Projected Weekly Range: 61.20
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/2012 @ 1.2398. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/26/2012 @ 1.2293. Upside Target = 1.2512 – 1.2609.
- The September Euro FX capped off its most volatile trading weeks in months on Friday with its best daily gain in over a month as it closed its highest level since before the July 4th holiday.
- With the ECB promising to backstop its currency and with mildly bullish US economic data, the risk on trade may push the Euro back above 1.2500 before it runs into further trouble.
- Projected Daily Range: .0144
- Projected Weekly Range: .0267
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 1387.75. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1414.25.
- The September S&P’s exploded higher on Friday with a bullish economic report giving investors enough reason to pile into the risk markets and pushed the S&P’s to their highest closing price since the correction in the beginning of May.
- Look for Friday’s rally to settle back in early trading on Monday before chairman Bernanke speaks but ultimately finding support above 1381.25.
- Projected Daily Range: 26.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 47.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
