Markets look for follow-through after jobs report, oil targets $95

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 08/06/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 109.88 – 111.83.
  • New highs made on current move Friday @ 109.13.
  • September Brent Crude moved sharply higher on Friday due to a surprisingly bullish NFP report which brought this market to new 11 week highs after trading within $0.75 of our initial upside objective.
  • Once Brent moves through last week’s high, look for this market to continue onward towards our Q3 upside objective of $113.56.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.84
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.69
  • Projected Monthly Range: 13.99

WTI Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/03/12 @ 90.96. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/03/12 @ 91.40. Upside Targets = 95.27 – 96.95.
  • September WTI Crude exploded higher on Friday following the bullish NFP report in the same type of formation that confirmed the lows back in late June, suggesting that this move could extend itself back above $95 for the first time in nearly two months.
  • WTI should see a modest setback after reaching overbought intraday levels on Friday before resuming the upward momentum as it stretches for our Q3 target of $95.53.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.54
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.49
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.71

Natural Gas (September):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/02/2012 @ 3.122. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.979. Downside Targets = 2.871 – 2.790.
  • New lows made on current move Friday @ 2.840.
  • September Natural Gas continued its descent lower on Friday as it traded through our initial Short Term downside objective 2.871 while closing at its lowest level in over 2 weeks.
  • Based on Friday’s price action, natural gas should continue lower throughout most of the week after an early week short-covering rally back near $3.00 before working its way towards the Intermediate Term target of 2.612.
  • Projected Daily Range: .164
  • Projected Weekly Range: .343
  • Projected Monthly Range: .629

Page 1 of 2 >>
Comments
comments powered by Disqus