KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 109.88 – 111.83.
- New highs made on current move Thursday @ 107.30.
- September Brent Crude finished Thursday’s session virtually unchanged after a lack of action from the ECB brought the broad risk markets off their highs.
- Although the Middle East relations are continuing to intensify, the biggest factor left in the crude oil market is Friday’s NFP report which, based on previous economic indicators, could prompt a sharp drop in prices.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.54
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.90
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/02/12 @ 87.30. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/23/12 @ 88.14. Downside Targets = 85.86 – 84.62.
- September WTI Crude sank sharply lower on Thursday as it generated a bearish OVB after trading to within eight ticks of the previous week’s low.
- Should WTI follow through on Thursday’s bearish price action, this market could generate new three week lows and possibly head back lower toward the $80 threshold.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.55
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.20
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (September):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/02/2012 @ 3.122. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.979. Downside Targets = 2.871 – 2.790.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 3.122. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.979.
- September Natural Gas lost nearly 8% on Thursday as a much larger than expected build was reported by the EIA as prices traded to within 5 ticks of the downside objective listed in Thursday morning’s report.
- The current overwhelmingly bearish price action suggests that this market could break even further to 2.612 over the next week and a half.
- Projected Daily Range: .166
- Projected Weekly Range: .265
- Projected Monthly Range: .586
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/31/12 @ 1612.30. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/31/12 @ 1614.60. Downside Targets = 1596.10 – 1586.60.
- December Gold sank lower on Thursday after trading just 3 ticks through the downside targets listed in Wednesday morning’s report as gold closed at its lowest level in 7 sessions.
- Look for the downward movement in gold to nearing its end as it finds support within the most recent consolidation zone and moves back higher to 1642.40 over the next few weeks.
- Projected Daily Range: 25.60
- Projected Weekly Range: 63.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/01/2012 @ 1.2232. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/26/2012 @ 1.2293. Downside Target = 1.1888.
- Bearish DOUBLE OVB generated on Thursday.
- The September Euro FX saw its most volatile trading session in many months as the ECB announcement failed to deliver an encouraging sentiment amongst traders and the Euro closed at its lowest level in over a week.
- If/when Thursday’s low is violated, the euro should continue lower through the 1.20 threshold within the next 3-4 trading sessions.
- Projected Daily Range: .0158
- Projected Weekly Range: .0234
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/01/12 @ 1370.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/01/12 @ 1370.50. Downside Targets = 1352.50 – 1343.75 – 1332.75.
- Bearish EROVB (Extended Range Outside Vertical Bar) generated on Thursday making new lows on current move @ 1349.25.
- The September S&P’s dropped significantly lower on Thursday continuing the trend of a highly volatile marketplace with 3-5% price swings in both directions occurring within less than 2 trading weeks.
- Friday’s NFP report should no doubt cap off what has been a very exciting trading week and if it follows through on Thursday’s bearish price action, the S&P’s should trade towards our downside target of 1343.75.
- Projected Daily Range: 21.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 45.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
