Oil faces bearish technicals, looking at $80

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 08/03/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/31/12 @ 1612.30. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/31/12 @ 1614.60. Downside Targets = 1596.10 – 1586.60.
  • December Gold sank lower on Thursday after trading just 3 ticks through the downside targets listed in Wednesday morning’s report as gold closed at its lowest level in 7 sessions.
  • Look for the downward movement in gold to nearing its end as it finds support within the most recent consolidation zone and moves back higher to 1642.40 over the next few weeks.
  • Projected Daily Range: 25.60
  • Projected Weekly Range: 63.70
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/01/2012 @ 1.2232. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/26/2012 @ 1.2293. Downside Target = 1.1888.
  • Bearish DOUBLE OVB generated on Thursday.
  • The September Euro FX saw its most volatile trading session in many months as the ECB announcement failed to deliver an encouraging sentiment amongst traders and the Euro closed at its lowest level in over a week.
  • If/when Thursday’s low is violated, the euro should continue lower through the 1.20 threshold within the next 3-4 trading sessions.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0158
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0234
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/01/12 @ 1370.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/01/12 @ 1370.50. Downside Targets = 1352.50 – 1343.75 – 1332.75.
  • Bearish EROVB (Extended Range Outside Vertical Bar) generated on Thursday making new lows on current move @ 1349.25.
  • The September S&P’s dropped significantly lower on Thursday continuing the trend of a highly volatile marketplace with 3-5% price swings in both directions occurring within less than 2 trading weeks.
  • Friday’s NFP report should no doubt cap off what has been a very exciting trading week and if it follows through on Thursday’s bearish price action, the S&P’s should trade towards our downside target of 1343.75.
  • Projected Daily Range: 21.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 45.75
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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