Oil pops on supply draw, target near $90

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 08/02/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/31/12 @ 1612.30. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/31/12 @ 1614.60. Downside Targets = 1596.10 – 1586.60.
  • December Gold followed through on the bearish VRCB-OVB combination generated this week as it achieved our first downside objective of $1,596.10 on Wednesday before settling just below the daily mid-range.
  • After being oversold into intraday support, look for gold to move back marginally higher to $1,614.30 on Thursday before running into further daily resistance.
  • Projected Daily Range: 18.90
  • Projected Weekly Range: 63.70
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/01/2012 @ 1.2232. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/26/2012 @ 1.2293. Upside Target = 1.2412.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 1.22332 or lower.
  • The September Euro FX generated a bearish OVB on Wednesday after no action by the Fed was announced to make new lows for the week.
  • The euro should be highly sensitive to Thursday’s ECB announcement which will require some sort of interventional efforts in order to avoid another massive run on the currency to push it below 1.2000.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0095
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0234
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/01/12 @ 1370.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/01/12 @ 1370.50. Downside Targets = 1352.50 – 1343.75.
  • The September S&P’s sank lower in afternoon trading following the FOMC announcement which called for no further easing efforts and a mostly pessimistic view for the US economy.
  • The S&P’s will likely have a very volatile last two days this week with both the ECB meeting and NFP report to cap the week.
  • Projected Daily Range: 13.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 45.75
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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