KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 109.88 – 111.83.
- Bullish OVB generated on Wednesday.
- September Brent Crude paired its losses from Tuesday as it moved back to challenge the weekly highs as a much larger than expected draw in crude inventories along with escalating tensions with Iran helped fuel daily gains.
- Picking up Brent below $105.49 should provide a nice daily profit leading into Friday’s all-important NFP report.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.23
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.90
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/30/12 @ 90.48. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/23/12 @ 88.14. Upside Targets = 93.58 – 95.53
- September WTI Crude followed Brent higher on Wednesday as it too was fueled by the EIA storage draw and closed in the upper 70% of the daily range.
- After finding support over the past few days at the daily mid-Bollinger Band, WTI should be able to trade back near $90 on Thursday.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.19
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.20
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range and close violation on 07/30/2012 @ 3.187. Upside Targets = 3.355 – 3.507.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 3.122. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 3.122 or lower.
- September Natural Gas dropped lower on Wednesday against rising oil prices as lead stochastic indicators showing this market being overbought as well as the daily Resistance Bollinger Band forced gas to its lowest settlement of the week.
- Should natural gas break through Wednesday’s low on Thursday and confirm a Short Term top in the market, gas could drop as low as $2.907 before giving traders another shot to pile into the market.
- Projected Daily Range: .146
- Projected Weekly Range: .265
- Projected Monthly Range: .586
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/31/12 @ 1612.30. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/31/12 @ 1614.60. Downside Targets = 1596.10 – 1586.60.
- December Gold followed through on the bearish VRCB-OVB combination generated this week as it achieved our first downside objective of $1,596.10 on Wednesday before settling just below the daily mid-range.
- After being oversold into intraday support, look for gold to move back marginally higher to $1,614.30 on Thursday before running into further daily resistance.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.90
- Projected Weekly Range: 63.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/01/2012 @ 1.2232. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/26/2012 @ 1.2293. Upside Target = 1.2412.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 1.22332 or lower.
- The September Euro FX generated a bearish OVB on Wednesday after no action by the Fed was announced to make new lows for the week.
- The euro should be highly sensitive to Thursday’s ECB announcement which will require some sort of interventional efforts in order to avoid another massive run on the currency to push it below 1.2000.
- Projected Daily Range: .0095
- Projected Weekly Range: .0234
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/01/12 @ 1370.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/01/12 @ 1370.50. Downside Targets = 1352.50 – 1343.75.
- The September S&P’s sank lower in afternoon trading following the FOMC announcement which called for no further easing efforts and a mostly pessimistic view for the US economy.
- The S&P’s will likely have a very volatile last two days this week with both the ECB meeting and NFP report to cap the week.
- Projected Daily Range: 13.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 45.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
