Oil, stocks move lower on concerns Fed won’t act

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 08/01/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/31/12 @ 1612.30. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/31/12 @ 1614.60. Downside Targets = 1596.10 – 1586.60.
  • December Gold dropped lower today on the heels of a VRCB-OVB pattern confirming a Short Term top in the market as traders negotiated a “risk off” day across the board.
  • Even though gold’s daily price action points to a lower low on Wednesday, this could just be a head-fake south before this market continues moving higher through the June highs @ $1,642.40.
  • Projected Daily Range: 15.90
  • Projected Weekly Range: 63.70
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/26/2012 @ 1.2180. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/26/2012 @ 1.2293. Upside Target = 1.2412.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1.2232. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 1.22332 or lower.
  • The September Euro FX tried to regain some footing on Tuesday as it settled the day just a few ticks shy of last week’s close.
  • The euro has stalled in the area where last week’s report projected it would and should this market break through to new weekly lows on Wednesday, the euro should continue to deteriorate below 1.2000 to 1.1888.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0105
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0234
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 1359.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 1376.25. Upside Targets = 1398.00 – 1413.25.
  • C < LOHB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1370.75. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1370.75 or lower.
  • The September S&P’s dropped lower today on investors lack of optimism regarding additional stimulus to pump more money into a struggling economy as the market closed in the lower 20% of the day’s trading range.
  • Like other risk markets, should the S&P’s break through to new weekly lows on Wednesday, look for the market to continue lower heading into Friday’s NFP report.
  • Projected Daily Range: 19.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 45.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 45.75
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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