KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 109.88 – 111.83.
- C < LOHB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Tuesday. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bearish with a range violation @ 104.09. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bearish with a close @ 104.09 or lower.
- September Brent Crude sank lower in afternoon trading on Tuesday as hopes for additional federal stimulus fade ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.
- Should Brent make new lows for the week after tomorrow’s report, look for this market to have an extended move lower back below $100 to $98.69.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.47
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.90
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/30/12 @ 90.48. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/23/12 @ 88.14. Upside Targets = 93.58 – 95.53
- C < LOHB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Tuesday. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bearish with a range violation @ 87.30.
- September WTI Crude led the energy sector lower on Tuesday following the same underlying weakness as Brent, with hopes for more rounds of Fed stimulus waning and a weak economy driving down demand for crude oil.
- If/when last week’s low of 86.84 is violated, WTI should fall quickly to $82.55.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.64
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.20
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range and close violation on 07/30/2012 @ 3.187. Upside Targets = 3.355 – 3.507.
- New highs made on current move Tuesday @ 3.277. Upside Target 85% achieved.
- September Natural Gas saw its modest setback that we expected in last night’s report before moving back higher to last trade above the day’s mid-range.
- Natural gas should continue to move higher against the daily Resistance Bollinger Band on Wednesday as it works towards our upside targets.
- Projected Daily Range: .145
- Projected Weekly Range: .265
- Projected Monthly Range: .586
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/31/12 @ 1612.30. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/31/12 @ 1614.60. Downside Targets = 1596.10 – 1586.60.
- December Gold dropped lower today on the heels of a VRCB-OVB pattern confirming a Short Term top in the market as traders negotiated a “risk off” day across the board.
- Even though gold’s daily price action points to a lower low on Wednesday, this could just be a head-fake south before this market continues moving higher through the June highs @ $1,642.40.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.90
- Projected Weekly Range: 63.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/26/2012 @ 1.2180. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/26/2012 @ 1.2293. Upside Target = 1.2412.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1.2232. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 1.22332 or lower.
- The September Euro FX tried to regain some footing on Tuesday as it settled the day just a few ticks shy of last week’s close.
- The euro has stalled in the area where last week’s report projected it would and should this market break through to new weekly lows on Wednesday, the euro should continue to deteriorate below 1.2000 to 1.1888.
- Projected Daily Range: .0105
- Projected Weekly Range: .0234
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 1359.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 1376.25. Upside Targets = 1398.00 – 1413.25.
- C < LOHB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1370.75. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1370.75 or lower.
- The September S&P’s dropped lower today on investors lack of optimism regarding additional stimulus to pump more money into a struggling economy as the market closed in the lower 20% of the day’s trading range.
- Like other risk markets, should the S&P’s break through to new weekly lows on Wednesday, look for the market to continue lower heading into Friday’s NFP report.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 45.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 45.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
