Oil, stocks move lower on concerns Fed won’t act

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 08/01/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 109.88 – 111.83.
  • C < LOHB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Tuesday. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bearish with a range violation @ 104.09. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bearish with a close @ 104.09 or lower.
  • September Brent Crude sank lower in afternoon trading on Tuesday as hopes for additional federal stimulus fade ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.
  • Should Brent make new lows for the week after tomorrow’s report, look for this market to have an extended move lower back below $100 to $98.69.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.47
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.90
  • Projected Monthly Range: 13.99

WTI Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/30/12 @ 90.48. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/23/12 @ 88.14. Upside Targets = 93.58 – 95.53
  • C < LOHB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Tuesday. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bearish with a range violation @ 87.30.
  • September WTI Crude led the energy sector lower on Tuesday following the same underlying weakness as Brent, with hopes for more rounds of Fed stimulus waning and a weak economy driving down demand for crude oil.
  • If/when last week’s low of 86.84 is violated, WTI should fall quickly to $82.55.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.64
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.20
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.71

Natural Gas (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range and close violation on 07/30/2012 @ 3.187. Upside Targets = 3.355 – 3.507.
  • New highs made on current move Tuesday @ 3.277. Upside Target 85% achieved.
  • September Natural Gas saw its modest setback that we expected in last night’s report before moving back higher to last trade above the day’s mid-range.
  • Natural gas should continue to move higher against the daily Resistance Bollinger Band on Wednesday as it works towards our upside targets.
  • Projected Daily Range: .145
  • Projected Weekly Range: .265
  • Projected Monthly Range: .586

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