Stock market fails near Friday's highs -- again

Stock index, chart, technical analysis

Market Snapshot for session ending 7-30-12

Market Overview – What We Know:

• Yet again, major indexes were unable to make upside headway Tuesday on heels of last week’s gains. All faded marginally.
• NYSE trading volume rose 35% on market weakness Tuesday and Average Price per Share lost 13 cents to $58.93.
• Short-term trend remains positive, but selling below lower edge of 10-Day Price Channels (1344.67—S&P 500 through Wednesday) would suggest reversal of Minor Cycle to negative.
• Intermediate Cycle remains positive until lower edge of 10-Week price Channel (1304.85—S&P 500 through August 3).
• Short-term Momentum was last moving toward moderately “Overbought” levels along with our proprietary Trading Oscillators, and. Daily MAAD and CPFL Ratios.
• Daily MAAD was marginally negative Tuesday with 8 issues higher and 12 lower.
• Daily CPFL was negative Tuesday by 1.66 to 1.
• Cumulative Volume (CV) in S&P 500 and S&P 500 Emini futures contract has remained in relative synch with market since June 4 lows, but remains weaker than prices on long-term.

Market Overview – What We Think:

• Failure of major indexes to overcome resistance Monday and Tuesday makes us wonder if that same “overhead” could become increasingly problematic.
• Late March/early April (1422.38—S&P 500) highs must be overcome to not only re-assert short to intermediate-term advance, but to also re-assert long-term uptrend begun in March 2009. Upside failures would not bode well for market’s staying power.
• Lingering negative divergence by Daily MAAD, that has confirmed none of market strength since peaking July 3, is ongoing suggestion Smart Money has been doing more selling into strength over past few weeks than buying. While S&P was last holding in excess of 1380, Daily MAAD was positioned at equivalent S&P price of about 1320.
• And while there has been some improvement in CPFL data recently, that indicator still faces major resistance via a plot high made back on April 9. Daily CPFL Ratio was also last toward moderately “Overbought” levels.
• If prices continue to fail on upside, that failure would take on long-term implications since it would suggest market is losing upside steam. All that would be required then would be new short-term negative and downside break to turn Intermediate Cycle negative (below 1304.85—S&P 500).

Note: Stop levels, a function of the extant trend, are based on the trailing moving average price channels for the Highs or the Lows of an index. Whether or not a specific index is suggesting a “Buy” or Sell” is determined by whether or not index prices are above or below the current channel Stop levels. Stop levels should only be used as an entry or exit guide and in conjunction with other market entry and exit strategies.

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