Market volumes light ahead of reports and FOMC

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 07/31/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/25/12 @ 1584.10. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/25/12 @ 1608.10. Upside Targets = 1641.20.
  • Inside VRCB generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1615.30. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 1615.30 or lower.
  • December Gold was able to log a modest gain on Monday despite remaining in a very narrow trading range as it closed just above the daily mid-range.
  • After running into continued resistance at the daily Resistance Bollinger Band, Gold seemed to be lacking enthusiasm after its best week in nearly a month but if it can push higher through last week’s high of $1,633.30, this market could continue higher towards $1,662.20.
  • Projected Daily Range: 17.20
  • Projected Weekly Range: 63.70
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/26/2012 @ 1.2180. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/26/2012 @ 1.2293. Upside Target = 1.2412.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1.2232. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 1.22332 or lower.
  • The September Euro FX moved back lower on Monday after losing nearly 50% of its trading volume from Friday as traders settled the market below the daily mid-range.
  • Our view on the euro continues to be negative as the headwinds this market faces will need more than a Band-Aid of money printing and price action should pressure this market down to 1.1888.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0149
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0234
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 1359.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 1376.25. Upside Targets = 1398.00 – 1413.25.
  • New highs made on current move Monday @ 1387.50. Target 85% achieved.
  • The September S&P’s sank a bit lower on Monday as they too saw volumes decrease by nearly 40% as a lack of enthusiasm regarding this week’s economic indicating reports helped drop the market below the daily mid-range.
  • Tuesday’s personal income and outlays report should guide the price action but to continuing from Monday morning’s report, this market has shifted into overdrive and could plug along higher towards 1398.
  • Projected Daily Range: 25.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 45.75
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75

 

About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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