KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 109.88 – 111.83.
- Double VRCB generated on Monday.
- September Brent Crude was able to barely push through last week’s high of 106.94 on Monday before settling back in the lower 25% of the day’s trading range during another thin day of trading.
- Traders largely stayed away from all risk markets on Monday awaiting the FOMC meeting results as well as Friday’s NFP report.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.08
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.90
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/30/12 @ 90.48. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/23/12 @ 88.14. Upside Targets = 93.58 – 95.53
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 90.48 or higher.
- September WTI settled back lower on the day with a 20% drop from Friday’s already light trading volume as uncertainty crept back into the market because traders were unsure if the ECB had a big enough gun to deal with the current mess.
- Anticipation ahead of Friday’s NFP report has traders away from the action, but the market could see some fireworks with a week full of economic reports and an announcement from the FOMC.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.78
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.20
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range and close violation on 07/30/12 @ 3.187. Upside Targets = 3.355 – 3.507.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range and close violation @ 3.187.
- September Natural Gas gapped higher from last Friday’s close as it raced to highs for the year on Monday after trading within just 5 cents of our initial weekly upside price target.
- After reaching extremely elevated levels during Monday trading, look for a modest setback early Tuesday before resuming the upward momentum toward our Q3 target of $3.602.
- Projected Daily Range: .142
- Projected Weekly Range: .265
- Projected Monthly Range: .586
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/25/12 @ 1584.10. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/25/12 @ 1608.10. Upside Targets = 1641.20.
- Inside VRCB generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1615.30. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 1615.30 or lower.
- December Gold was able to log a modest gain on Monday despite remaining in a very narrow trading range as it closed just above the daily mid-range.
- After running into continued resistance at the daily Resistance Bollinger Band, Gold seemed to be lacking enthusiasm after its best week in nearly a month but if it can push higher through last week’s high of $1,633.30, this market could continue higher towards $1,662.20.
- Projected Daily Range: 17.20
- Projected Weekly Range: 63.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/26/2012 @ 1.2180. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/26/2012 @ 1.2293. Upside Target = 1.2412.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1.2232. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 1.22332 or lower.
- The September Euro FX moved back lower on Monday after losing nearly 50% of its trading volume from Friday as traders settled the market below the daily mid-range.
- Our view on the euro continues to be negative as the headwinds this market faces will need more than a Band-Aid of money printing and price action should pressure this market down to 1.1888.
- Projected Daily Range: .0149
- Projected Weekly Range: .0234
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 1359.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 1376.25. Upside Targets = 1398.00 – 1413.25.
- New highs made on current move Monday @ 1387.50. Target 85% achieved.
- The September S&P’s sank a bit lower on Monday as they too saw volumes decrease by nearly 40% as a lack of enthusiasm regarding this week’s economic indicating reports helped drop the market below the daily mid-range.
- Tuesday’s personal income and outlays report should guide the price action but to continuing from Monday morning’s report, this market has shifted into overdrive and could plug along higher towards 1398.
- Projected Daily Range: 25.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 45.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
