Market volumes light ahead of reports and FOMC

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 07/31/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.19. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/27/12 @ 106.47. Upside Target = 109.88 – 111.83.
  • Double VRCB generated on Monday.
  • September Brent Crude was able to barely push through last week’s high of 106.94 on Monday before settling back in the lower 25% of the day’s trading range during another thin day of trading.
  • Traders largely stayed away from all risk markets on Monday awaiting the FOMC meeting results as well as Friday’s NFP report.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.08
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.90
  • Projected Monthly Range: 13.99

WTI Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/30/12 @ 90.48. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/23/12 @ 88.14. Upside Targets = 93.58 – 95.53
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 90.48 or higher.
  • September WTI settled back lower on the day with a 20% drop from Friday’s already light trading volume as uncertainty crept back into the market because traders were unsure if the ECB had a big enough gun to deal with the current mess.
  • Anticipation ahead of Friday’s NFP report has traders away from the action, but the market could see some fireworks with a week full of economic reports and an announcement from the FOMC.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.78
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.20
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.71

Natural Gas (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range and close violation on 07/30/12 @ 3.187. Upside Targets = 3.355 – 3.507.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range and close violation @ 3.187.
  • September Natural Gas gapped higher from last Friday’s close as it raced to highs for the year on Monday after trading within just 5 cents of our initial weekly upside price target.
  • After reaching extremely elevated levels during Monday trading, look for a modest setback early Tuesday before resuming the upward momentum toward our Q3 target of $3.602.
  • Projected Daily Range: .142
  • Projected Weekly Range: .265
  • Projected Monthly Range: .586

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