KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/23/12 @ 105.27. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/23/12 @ 103.26. Upside Target = 109.88.
- C > HOLB (Close Above High Low Bar) generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 106.19. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 106.19 or higher.
- September Brent Crude followed Thursday’s report in perfect unison, missing the daily low we projected by 4 ticks before advancing over $2.50 to close at its highest price of the week.
- Brent should continue higher on Friday based off current price action but the GDP report will ultimately decide market direction going into the weekend.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.42
- Projected Weekly Range: 7.15
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/23/12 @ 90.15. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/23/12 @ 88.14. Upside Targets = 93.58 – 95.53.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 90.48. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 90.48 or higher.
- September WTI Crude realized a small gain on Thursday, barely closing above Wednesday’s high after a midday setback.
- WTI will no doubt hinge on Friday’s early morning GDP report but with a close above $90 it should be able to advance higher over the next week towards $95.53.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.19
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/26/2012 @ 3.035. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/18/2012 @ 2.950. Upside Targets = 3.174 – 3.288.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 3.035 or lower.
- September Natural Gas sank lower in the initial aftermath of the EIA Storage report but rallied hard for the remainder of the session to settle just off the day’s high.
- Natural gas should continue to move higher on Friday and challenge the weekly highs just below $3.20.
- Projected Daily Range: .118
- Projected Weekly Range: .298
- Projected Monthly Range: .586
METALS
COMEX Gold (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/25/12 @ 1584.10. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/25/12 @ 1608.10. Upside Targets = 1641.20.
- New highs made on current move Thursday @ 1621.50. TREND REVERSAL CONFIRMED
- August Gold continued its rally on Friday after opening a shade lower but found support above $1,600 as it traded to the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
- Look for gold to continue higher over the next few weeks as it makes a run to new three-month highs above $1,674.30.
- Projected Daily Range: 23.20
- Projected Weekly Range: 52.40
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/26/2012 @ 1.2180. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/26/2012 @ 1.2293. Upside Target = 1.2412.
- The September Euro FX generated an ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) on Thursday as ECB President Draghi reiterated that it would do whatever was needed to support the Euro.
- Comments like these will surely create a brief sigh of relief but does nothing to address the fundamental problems with Euro countries which in turn will lead to an extended period of currency devaluation.
- Projected Daily Range: .0142
- Projected Weekly Range: .0256
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/23/12 @ 1356.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/23/12 @ 1343.75. Downside Targets = 1315.50 – 1303.25
- Bullish ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1359.00. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1359.00 or higher.
- The September S&P’s exploded higher on Thursday due to a strong jobless claim number as well as a sense of relief from the Euro mess as it filled the weekly close gap from last week.
- As coincides with all risk markets, Friday’s GDP report will prove to be the single most important factor for tomorrow’s price action.
- Projected Daily Range: 24.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 42.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
