Oil hinges on GDP, gold shooting for $1,674

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 07/27/12

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/23/12 @ 105.27. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/23/12 @ 103.26. Upside Target = 109.88.
  • C > HOLB (Close Above High Low Bar) generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 106.19. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 106.19 or higher.
  • September Brent Crude followed Thursday’s report in perfect unison, missing the daily low we projected by 4 ticks before advancing over $2.50 to close at its highest price of the week.
  • Brent should continue higher on Friday based off current price action but the GDP report will ultimately decide market direction going into the weekend.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.42
  • Projected Weekly Range: 7.15
  • Projected Monthly Range: 13.99

WTI Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/23/12 @ 90.15. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/23/12 @ 88.14. Upside Targets = 93.58 – 95.53.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 90.48. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 90.48 or higher.
  • September WTI Crude realized a small gain on Thursday, barely closing above Wednesday’s high after a midday setback.
  • WTI will no doubt hinge on Friday’s early morning GDP report but with a close above $90 it should be able to advance higher over the next week towards $95.53.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.19
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.71

Natural Gas (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/26/2012 @ 3.035. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/18/2012 @ 2.950. Upside Targets = 3.174 – 3.288.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 3.035 or lower.
  • September Natural Gas sank lower in the initial aftermath of the EIA Storage report but rallied hard for the remainder of the session to settle just off the day’s high.
  • Natural gas should continue to move higher on Friday and challenge the weekly highs just below $3.20.
  • Projected Daily Range: .118
  • Projected Weekly Range: .298
  • Projected Monthly Range: .586

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