Gold volatility picks up, on track to $1,721.90

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 07/26/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

METALS

COMEX Gold (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/25/12 @ 1584.10. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/25/12 @ 1608.10. Upside Targets = 1641.20.
  • TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a range violation @ 1584.10. TREND REVESAL to bullish with a close @ 1608.10.
  • August Gold saw its best single day advance of July on Wednesday with the volatility expansion we have been looking for per Wednesday’s report came to fruition as this market closed above $1,600 for the first time in three weeks. We have been saying for a couple of weeks this was getting ready to occur.
  • Look for Gold to see a modest setback in early trading Thursday before resuming this current move higher towards the Q3 objective of $1,721.90.
  • Projected Daily Range: 22.90
  • Projected Weekly Range: 52.40
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/20/2012 @ 12170. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/20/2012 @ 1.2168. Downside Target = 1.2003.
  • C > HOLB (Close Above High Low Bar) generated on Wednesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.2180. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1.2180 or higher.
  • The September Euro FX moved sharply higher on Wednesday as it generated new highs for the week and filled the close gap left from last Friday.
  • While the euro garnered support today as a majority of the European stock indices advanced, this currency still has more room to the downside.
  • Dating back as far as Q4 2011, we have called for a serious decline in the value of the Euro and in Q2 2012 called for the Euro to break below 1.2000. This should come to fruition after this upcoming rally fizzles around 1.2355.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0097
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0256
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/23/12 @ 1356.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/23/12 @ 1343.75. Downside Targets = 1315.50 – 1303.25
  • New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 1321.25. Downside Target over 90% achieved.
  • The September S&P’s tried to pare some of Tuesday’s decline after making new weekly lows yet fighting out a gain as earnings led the way in another choppy trading session.
  • The current market psychology still suggest that investors are just piling into large cap companies as a “safe” bet against a possible global recession led by the unnerving feeling of a European Union collapse.
  • Projected Daily Range: 22.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 42.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75

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