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Gold setting up for volatile August; euro targets 1.16

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 07/25/12

By

July 25, 2012 • Reprints


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

METALS

COMEX Gold (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/23/12 @ 1567.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/06/12 @ 1578.90. Downside Targets = 1549.90 – 1522.70.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation above 1584.10.
  • August Gold settled almost exactly where it began Tuesday’s session as this market continues to struggle to attract buyers for a significant move higher.
  • Gold is currently trading in its lowest three month trading range dating back to Q2 2008, setting up for an extended period of higher volatility beginning in August.
  • Projected Daily Range: 20.60
  • Projected Weekly Range: 52.40
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/20/2012 @ 1.2170. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/20/2012 @ 1.2168. Downside Target = 1.2003.
  • New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 1.2051. Downside Target 87% achieved.
  • The September Euro FX dropped to fresh 2 year lows on Tuesday as it threatens to break the 1.20 threshold for only the second time since March 2006.
  • Any subsequent rallies should be viewed as strong selling opportunities as we expect this market to continue below the 2010 lows all the way down to our Q3 objective of 1.1686.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0104
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0256
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/23/12 @ 1356.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/23/12 @ 1343.75. Downside Targets = 1315.50 – 1303.25
  • New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 1323.75. Downside Target 92% achieved.
  • The September S&P’s traded to within 6 ticks of our upside target listed in Tuesday’s report before dropping over 20 points through our initial Short Term objective of 1327.50.
  • The S&P’s will need a great housing number on Wednesday to fuel a mid-week rally before the all-important GDP figures are released Friday morning.
  • Projected Daily Range: 20.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 42.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/23/12 @ 105.27. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/23/12 @ 103.26. Downside Target = 100.92.
  • VRCB generated on Tuesday.
  • September Brent Crude settled within a very narrow trading range on Tuesday in the aftermath of Monday’s sharp drop lower while managing to squeak out a marginal gain.
  • Should Brent break through Tuesday’s low of 102.53 this market could continue to accelerate lower towards the downside objective of 100.92.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.86
  • Projected Weekly Range: 7.15
  • Projected Monthly Range: 13.99

WTI Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/23/12 @ 90.15. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/23/12 @ 88.14. Downside Targets = 86.70 – 85.39.
  • New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 87.43.
  • September WTI Crude settled higher on Tuesday in a thin trading day as the market seemed to be catching its breath from Monday’s drastic drop lower.
  • Expect an overnight move higher on Wednesday before the EIA Storage Report and New Home Sales are distributed in the morning.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.37
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.71

Natural Gas (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/18/2012 @ 2.909. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/18/2012 @ 2.950. Upside Targets = 3.072 – 3.174.
  • September Natural Gas continued higher for its fifth consecutive day of gains on Tuesday after trading through our highest Short Term objective @ $3.174 while closing above the daily Resistance Bollinger Band for the third straight day.
  • API storage numbers are looking bearish heading into Thursday’s report but bullish price action dictates that this market should be able to continue to advance higher toward the Intermediate Term upside objectives of $3.288.
  • Projected Daily Range: .125
  • Projected Weekly Range: .298
  • Projected Monthly Range: .586
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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