Gold setting up for volatile August; euro targets 1.16

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 07/25/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

METALS

COMEX Gold (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/23/12 @ 1567.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/06/12 @ 1578.90. Downside Targets = 1549.90 – 1522.70.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation above 1584.10.
  • August Gold settled almost exactly where it began Tuesday’s session as this market continues to struggle to attract buyers for a significant move higher.
  • Gold is currently trading in its lowest three month trading range dating back to Q2 2008, setting up for an extended period of higher volatility beginning in August.
  • Projected Daily Range: 20.60
  • Projected Weekly Range: 52.40
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/20/2012 @ 1.2170. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/20/2012 @ 1.2168. Downside Target = 1.2003.
  • New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 1.2051. Downside Target 87% achieved.
  • The September Euro FX dropped to fresh 2 year lows on Tuesday as it threatens to break the 1.20 threshold for only the second time since March 2006.
  • Any subsequent rallies should be viewed as strong selling opportunities as we expect this market to continue below the 2010 lows all the way down to our Q3 objective of 1.1686.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0104
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0256
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/23/12 @ 1356.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/23/12 @ 1343.75. Downside Targets = 1315.50 – 1303.25
  • New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 1323.75. Downside Target 92% achieved.
  • The September S&P’s traded to within 6 ticks of our upside target listed in Tuesday’s report before dropping over 20 points through our initial Short Term objective of 1327.50.
  • The S&P’s will need a great housing number on Wednesday to fuel a mid-week rally before the all-important GDP figures are released Friday morning.
  • Projected Daily Range: 20.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 42.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75

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